Chicago chocolate stores are busy promoting their Valentine Day specials and expecting a surge in sales, hoping that chocolate-loving consumers indulge.

Despite the weak economy, retailers such as Ethel’s Chocolate Lounge and Candyality Ltd. are optimistic about sales for Valentine’s Day, which is one of the three largest holidays for chocolate sales. But industry estimates paint a gloomier picture, with fewer adults planning on buying candy this year.

Ethel’s Chocolate Lounge, part of Mars Retail Group Inc., has put together new chocolate selections for its stores around the Chicago area, targeting Valentine’s Day and the spring season. Steve Dekany, communication director for Ethel’s, said the retailer developed a couple of new flavors for the season, including crème brulee, strawberry cheesecake, pinapple upside down cake, chocolate mousse and tiramisu. It also prepared a heart-shaped white chocolate candy exclusively for Valentine’s Day.

Ethel’s will offer a 20 percent coupon promotion for Valentine’s fondue, which can be used from Valentine’s Day through Feb. 22.

"The week of Valentine’s Day is like all four weeks of holiday rolled into one,” said Ira Fortner, a Chicago area manager for Ethel’s. “It’s our major holiday.”

Ethel’s may see fewer people coming into stores for Valentine’s Day treats because of the economy, but the retailer has already seen at least a double-digit increase in the number of boxes sold for the big day so far, Fortner said.

"So far it seems pretty on track,” he said. “We have better products this year, better price this year, so I think our customers will come back to it.”

Industry estimates, however, aren’t as upbeat. The National Confectioners Association expects confectionery sales for the Valentine’s season to be about $1 billion this year, slightly below last year’s sales, Susan L. Fussell, vice president of communication at the National Confectioners Association, said in an e-mail.

In addition to the sour economy, sales may also struggle because Valentine’s Day falls on a Saturday this year. Sales typically decline when that occurs because people opt to eat out or choose other ways to celebrate, Fussell said.

A National Retailer Federation survey conducted by BIGresearch LLC found that 45.8 percent of adults plan on purchasing candy as a Valentine’s Day gift this year, down1.9 percentage points from last year. Adults plan on spending $102.50 for Valentine’s Day gifts, down 16.7 percent from last year.

Gilles Noyer is one retailer who is taking a cautious stance on the holiday’s sales. Noyer, franchise owner of Tuescher Chocolates Chicago Ltd. on North Michigan Avenue, expects fewer sales compared with last year, but he’s prepared in case his store is busy. “We’re still not quite sure what’s going to happen,” he said.

Consumers gravitate toward premium chocolate even in tough economic times, Noyer said.

"[The customers] come for the quality,” he said. “People will spend the extra bucks for a high end chocolate. And good sales will continue because they like good chocolate.”

To satisfy more customers’ demands and create more sales, the high-end chocolate shop has changed to a wider range of prices in recent months. “Now we have more affordable boxes under $50," Noyer said.

Still, owners of stores such as Candyality on Southport Avenue are upbeat about sales for the holiday. Terese McDonald, owner of Candyality, has seen a “strong” double-digit increase in business since the start of the year and said customers “are definitely spending more on Valentine’s.”

McDonald sells at least 50 pounds of chocolate on an average day at a price of $19.99 a pound.

"I wouldn’t say candy is recession proof although I always read about that,” McDonald said. “But I think candy is pretty resilient and people tend to like sweets.”

Valerie Beck, creator and owner of Chicago Chocolate Tours, said even in a recession, there are still three successful businesses: beer, lipstick and chocolate. Beck has seen an increase in her chocolate tour business, where she conducts five to 10 tours a week to chocolate boutiques. The tours are $40 per person.

"I'm not seeing any slowdown,” Beck said. “This February is actually bigger than last February.”