Even though April’s reading is a sharp increase from March, economists said the index still lingers at historic lows.

“The good news is that is seems to me that the economy is not falling,” said Adolfo Laurenti, senior economist at Mesirow Financial Holdings Inc. in Chicago. “We are now seeing signs that we are closer to the bottom. We are in a weak climate, but not in a freefall.”

The Consumer Confidence Index, based on a sample of 5,000 U.S. households, surveys the present situation of consumers and their expectations for the coming six months.

“We are at remarkable low levels of confidence, but we are past the turn,” said Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics LLC in Boulder, Colo. While other measurements numbers signal an economic recovery, the index is still below the previous 1992 recession low of 47.3 in that cycle, Englund said. The reading does, however, signal that the economy has hit a floor, Englund said. “There is nowhere to go but up,” he said.

Most of the boost in the index came from a rise in how consumers expect the economy to do in the next six months. The expectation index rose to 49.5 in April from 30.2 in March. The expectations arise from an enormous amount of confidence placed in the president, said Peter Morici, professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business. “I don’t think we are going to get the kind of recovery we are promised,” he said.

Laurenti said the fiscal effects won’t be felt until next year when the economy will have already turned around. “It is much more likely to add to growth in 2010,” he said. “It will give a boost when the economy is already improving.”

One of the biggest economic hurdles is the mounting unemployment levels. The national unemployment rate for March was 8.5 percent; its highest level since 1983, according to the Department of Labor.

The fiscal stimulus plan has not effectively targeted unemployment, Morici said, noting that it doesn’t generate nearly as many jobs as is necessary.

The report by the business research group also shows that households see unemployment as a looming problem. The index, which also measures the present economic situation based on business and employment conditions, had only a slight increase to 23.7 in April from a 12-month low of 21.9 last month. Only 7.6 percent of those surveyed think business conditions are “good,” compared with 15.4 percent a year ago.

The percent of households that view jobs as plentiful reached a 12-month low of 4.5 percent.

“I am less optimistic about jobs,” Laurenti said. “The job market will continue to remain weak, probably until the end of the year at best."

Chicagoans have similar reservations about the economic recovery this year.

“I think it is going to take [some time] to recover,” said Jackie Frew, an accountant in the Chicago area. “I think there is a second wave coming.”