Story URL: http://news.medill.northwestern.edu/chicago/news.aspx?id=182704
Story Retrieval Date: 5/19/2013 12:46:14 PM CST
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In the Feb. 22 election only 28.6 of voting age Chicagoans cast a ballot. Residents discuss why they think people didn't vote.
Census, voter turnout points to possible tension over new City Council map
by Kristen Barbaresi
March 10, 2011
Kristen Barbaresi/MEDILL
This graph shows the voting age population, number of registered voters and number of ballots cast in the Feb. 22, municipal election.
Kristen Barbaresi/MEDILL
This graph shows the voting age population, number of registered voters and number of ballots cast in each ward in the Feb. 22, municipal election.
Kristen Barbaresi/MEDILL
This graph shows the number of ballots cast in each ward during the 2003, 2007 and 2011 municipal elections.
Youth votes ... this time
While overall voter turnout was lower than expected, initial estimates
indicate that young voters turned out in much higher numbers than in the 2007
municipal elections.
“The hard numbers take time to come in,” said Eric Zoberman, a field director for
Rock the Vote, “but by our calculations, turnout actually rose significantly
and at a higher rate than turnout overall.”
Estimates are based on numbers from Chicago’s five most youth-dense wards,
which are: 1st, 22nd, 32nd, 35th and 44th. The turnout in those wards was up 14
percentage points from 2007, which Zoberman said demonstrates that the younger
demographic was active.
Traditionally, the 18-34 demographic, which accounts for one-third of Chicago’s
registered voters, has the lowest turnout.
“First and foremost it’s a transient population,” Zoberman said. “Very few
people that age live in the same place now than they did two years ago. Very
often they don’t know they have to register or that they can register.”
Typically, because the young demographic is less likely to vote, candidates
don’t spend a lot of time gearing their campaigns toward the youth vote.
“It’s a bad cycle,” Zoberman said. “Because they [young voters] have a history
of not voting in high numbers, politicians don’t pay attention to young people [or]
speak to them to the extent they should.”
However, in this municipal race, many organizations made an effort to engage
young people. Rock the Vote had a meet-and-greet with some candidates at Rockit
Bar and Grill just days before the election. Debate organizers also held forums
in which candidates responded to young voters’ questions.
“There was a fair amount of youth outreach,” Zoberman said. “However, there
should always be more.”
Overall, turnout was higher than past municipal elections but still fell short of the 50 percent prediction made by the Chicago Board of Elections.
“The early voting numbers were similar to what we saw last October, when turnout was 53 percent, so we were looking at roughly 50 percent,” said Jim Allen, communications director for the Board of Elections. “In hindsight, the greater use of early voting this year merely reflected that many more people are now accustomed to using early voting.”
In reality, 42 percent of registered voters participated in the Feb. 22 election. That’s still slightly higher than 2003, which had a 33.7 percent turnout and 2007 which had a 33.1 percent turnout.
Experts say, however, that a better measure of how many Chicagoans actually participate is to look at the total percent of the voting population that casts a ballot rather than the percent of registered voters.
“Only two-thirds of the voting age population is registered to vote,” Kleppner said. “So using that [percentage of registered voters who vote] paints a rosier picture than the reality.”
According to the 2010 census data, the voting age population of Chicago is a little more than 2 million. On Feb. 22 about 594,000 ballots were cast meaning only 28.6 percent of Chicagoans 18 and over cast a ballot.
However, because a census is not taken every year, the exact population of the wards for previous elections is difficult to determine.
The number of registered voters can also be skewed because those who are registered but move can remain registered for a period of time.
“Those who move are protected by federal law,” Allen said. “Their records must stay on file as ‘inactive’ for two federal election cycles before they can be canceled.”
“Race is definitely related to, putting other things aside, turnout,” said Rob Paral, who researches demographics in Chicago. “The census bureau data is clear, even when you control for other things.”
Still, it is important to note that socioeconomics and education are also important factors, Paral said.
“What is important to understand is there is a difference between whites, blacks and Latinos, in terms of voting patterns,” Paral said. “Whites have higher registration and turnout rates, but it’s hard to detangle that from socioeconomic rates.”
Kleppner agrees.
“It’s hard to distinguish race and socioeconomic factors,” Kleppner said. “Both matter. Race is easy to see in the numbers.”
Examining the turnout in the wards with the most competitive aldermanic races, the 14 that are headed to April 5 runoffs, confirms the pattern of minorities voting in smaller numbers.
Eight of the 14 wards going to runoffs had turnout higher than the city average. Seven of those wards have white majority populations. Only one of those high turnout wards has a black majority.
The other six wards with aldermanic contests going to runoffs had turnout below the city average. Of those wards, five are black majority wards and one is a Latino majority ward.
To the experts these results are not surprising.
“It makes sense,” Paral said.
“That’s a pretty standard result,” Kleppner said.
There isn’t a clear way to get exact numbers on how many whites, blacks and Latinos actually vote, other than looking at the majorities within the wards.
“People do not register by ethnicity or race,” Allen said. “And even if they did, no one would know which individuals cast which ballots. The only way to approximate might be through an exit poll.”
So far, there aren’t any extensive exit polls from the Feb. 22 election.
Other factors affecting voter turnout
Socioeconomic standing and education are crucial factors, and often related to race, but they are more difficult to track and assess.
Another important factor is the ward organization, and the number of city workers living in the ward.
“There are city workers, county workers and patronage workers whose ability to hold on to their jobs depends on doing what ward leadership tells them to do,” Kleppner said.
An example is House Speaker Michael Madigan’s 13th Ward, where the majority of the population is Latino and Marty Quinn, a first-time candidate, was running unopposed -- and yet turnout was 58.3 percent.
“It’s well-organized and city workers live there,” Kleppner said. “So, that ward will probably always have high turnout.”
New Census means new wards
Chicago’s one-man-one-vote system requires that wards be as close to equal in population as possible. The wards are redistributed one year after a new Census is taken, meaning by the end of this year, new boundaries should be in place.
“The gist is that certainly in Illinois and in Chicago, the law requires that you create as many minority majority districts as you can,” Paral said.
New wards mean a couple of things.
There have also been shifts in racial demographics. The Latino population has increased by more than 25,000. Meanwhile the white population has decreased by more than 52,000, and the black population has decreased by more than 181,000.
“The Latinos have held on to their majority wards and the whites still have theirs,” Kleppner said, “but the blacks have clearly lost at least two wards.”
There should also be more Latino majority wards, Paral said.
“Something’s gotta give,” Paral said, “I don’t know if that means less white or black population wards. Without a doubt the city is getting more Latinos.”
The new wards are important to each racial group because of voting power. Since blacks and Latinos vote in lower numbers than whites, they need as great a majority in as many wards as possible so their candidates can be elected.
In other words, the more densely populated a racial group, the greater the chance they will control the vote.
“You could, hypothetically, construct a 50 or 55 percent Latino ward, but if even 35 percent of the ward is white, they will control the ward because they can and do vote,” Kleppner said.
The bottom line? Voting turnout patterns make it clear that race is a factor in determining who votes. That fact alone means the racial majorities in the new wards will be of concern for aldermen and residents alike.
“They’re going to have to redraw the boundaries quickly,” Kleppner said. “And it’s going to be a struggle.”
