WASHINGTON -- As Hurricane Ike advanced on the Texas coast last month, Devon Energy Corp. relied on its meteorologist’s predictions for help with crucial business decisions.

For Devon and other energy producers with offshore drilling operations, storm monitoring is an important part of their work. Advance warning from experts is required to suspend oil production before a hurricane hits. But what if forecasting could go beyond a week’s notice? What if America’s coastal energy industry knew years ahead of time how intense or frequent hurricanes would be?

That is the goal of a study under way at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is working with the energy industry and the Department of Energy to assess how global warming will influence hurricane behavior over the next decades. The study has approximately $17 million in funding, the bulk of which comes from the National Science Foundation to finance an advanced computer that analyzes storm intensity.

“What we’re doing with the study is aiming to provide improved assessments of what is likely to happen in the future and to work with the industry to feed that into their planning process,” said Greg Holland, leader of the project and a senior scientist with NCAR.

In the last 13 years, scientists have observed an increase in hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico, with an unprecedented number of both high-frequency and high- intensity hurricanes. These storms have repeatedly hamstrung domestic energy production, causing concern among oil and gas producers that their infrastructure is inadequate to withstand high-impact hurricanes.

The NCAR study will test predictions that the next 50 years hold an even greater number of Category 4 and Category 5 hurricanes. One Category 5 does hundreds of times more damage than a Category 2 or Category 3. There is, however, expected to be a decrease in the number of hurricanes overall, according to recent studies.

The NCAR scientists will make the first objective analysis of more intense hurricanes using a computer model of the atmosphere to determine how hurricanes respond to greenhouse gases and increased sea temperatures.

Most notable for energy companies, the study has the potential to help with designs for future oil rigs, which are massive structures used to drill or extract oil and natural gas through wells in the ocean bed. Since the design and cost of a rig is determined by the degree of hurricane threat, if the NCAR study uncovers information about the intensity of future hurricanes, energy companies can plan accordingly.

“Companies are looking at design criteria of these rigs so they aren’t impacted,” said Chris Hebert, a lead hurricane forecaster with Impact Weather. “If you can demonstrate that certain conditions will be expected across the Gulf, they will be looking to prepare for those types of conditions.”

While energy producers are concerned about the increasing instability of aging near-shore rigs, newer rigs located farther from the coast, in water thousands of feet deep, also are attracting attention. As drilling operations cover more space each year, they have greater exposure and a better chance of being hit.

Chip Minty with Devon, as well as representatives from Shell Oil, are hesitant to comment on the study until findings are official.

Minty won’t have to wait long. The study is expected to be published in April 2010, but presentations at scientific conferences will start in February. For an industry that falls prey to intense tropical storms year after year, increased understanding about climate change and hurricanes cannot come soon enough.