When I'm 64

WASHINGTON-- Americans may not want to look in the mirror and admit it, but we’re getting old.

Even though the rest of the world may think of us as sassy, Facebook-obsessed overgrown kids, Americans are old-timers compared to most other countries. In 2005, 42 percent of Americans were under 30 and 17 percent were 60 or older. That makes the U.S. one of the world’s most mature countries, and also may explain why it’s one of the most politically stable, according to a new study.

Countries fall into one of four age categories in the study, completed over two years by non-profit group Population Action International. Using data gathered from the past 30 years, the study classified countries as very young, youthful, transitional or mature. In very young countries, at least two out of three residents are less than 30 years old. By contrast, the majority of residents in mature countries are between 30 and 59.

  Things get interesting when comparing the age structure of a country to its political well-being.  Almost 90 percent of very young countries, most of which are in Africa, have weak democratic governments, or autocratic systems., while 80 percent of mature countries have stable democracies. What’s more, 80 percent of civil conflicts over the past 30 years took place in very young countries.

During a panel discussion Tuesday, the study’s lead researcher, Elizabeth Leahy, said that countries’ age structures aren’t set in stone.

“Demography is not destiny,” she said. “Countries can change their fate.”

That idea already has congressmen champing at the bit to reshape assistance programs in developing parts of the world.

 Both Rep. Russ Carnahan, D-Mo., and Jordan Press, aide to  Rep. Christopher Shays, R-Conn., were on hand Tuesday’s to talk about family planning initiatives, reproductive health care and education for women in developing countries. The goal is to help more children live into adulthood and beyond. 
  
The study isn’t just about developing countries, either. Age structure could become very real to Americans in the next couple of decades if the U.S. morphs into a fifth country type: “aged.”  Leahy predicted that could happen by 2025

In an aged country, the nagging question of financing Social Security would loom even more fiercely over young Americans. Americans in their 20s and 30s face a shrinking pool of Social Security funds as Baby Boomers move into retirement. 

“Certainly, I think there are some lessons there for Americans,” Carnahan said.

Not everyone is buying into the idea that social problems have a significant connection to age. One man in the audience challenged the age structure theory, suggesting that resource scarcity can stunt the growth of developing countries just as much as a young population.

Still, panelist William Butz, president of the Population Reference Bureau, “this report places the burden of proof on other researchers who say that age structure is not the cause,” he said.

So even though Americans might not want to be called old, being mature can have its benefits.