{"id":106051,"date":"2025-10-14T18:43:14","date_gmt":"2025-10-14T23:43:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/?p=106051"},"modified":"2026-01-01T16:04:35","modified_gmt":"2026-01-01T22:04:35","slug":"e-l-f-beauty-rhode-show-impact-of-celebrity-association-on-brands-stock-companys-trajectory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/e-l-f-beauty-rhode-show-impact-of-celebrity-association-on-brands-stock-companys-trajectory\/","title":{"rendered":"E.l.f. Beauty, Rhode show impact of celebrity association on brand\u2019s stock, company’s trajectory"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Bianca Javate
\n<\/strong>Medill Reports<\/em><\/p>\n

When E.l.f. Beauty announced May 29 it would acquire Hailey Bieber\u2019s skin care line Rhode for $1 billion, its stock surged 24% in just a few days<\/a>. This is an unusually sharp move as, based on historical market data compiled by Financial Samurai and DataTrek Research, the S&P 500 typically shifts less than 1% on most trading days.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe valuation of $1 billion for such a young brand is kind of unheard of,\u201d said Kelly Kovack, founder and chief executive officer of industry publication BeautyMatter. \u201cI think strategically, I mean, E.l.f. made a statement, like \u2018we’re here, we’re a massive acquirer.\u2019 . . . I still think it’s a pretty risky deal, but if it succeeds, it’s a huge win.\u201d<\/p>\n

E.l.f. Beauty Chief Financial Officer Mandy Fields struck a more optimistic tone during the company\u2019s first earnings call after the Rhode acquisition, as reported by Vogue Business in August<\/a>. \u201cWe\u2019re pleased with what we\u2019re seeing out of Rhode,\u201d Fields said. \u201cWe\u2019re so excited about all the signals that we\u2019re seeing.\u201d<\/p>\n

Once dismissed as vanity projects, celebrity beauty brands have evolved into billion-dollar assets. Rihanna\u2019s Fenty Beauty and Selena Gomez\u2019s Rare Beauty are prime examples of when star power meets product credibility.<\/p>\n

Rare Beauty, launched by Gomez in September 2020, was reported by Bloomberg in 2024 to be exploring a valuation near $2 billion<\/a>. Meanwhile, Rihanna\u2019s Fenty Beauty, which was launched in 2017 and developed alongside LVMH Mo\u00ebt Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE, was estimated by Forbes to have surpassed a $2.8 billion valuation in 2021<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere was a huge boom in the celebrity beauty world between 2017 to 2022. . . . After Fenty Beauty, people really started to understand how much money could be made,\u201d said Emma Sandler, former beauty editor at Glossy.<\/p>\n

But Fenty\u2019s and Rare Beauty\u2019s success does not overshadow the cautionary tales presented by other brands.<\/p>\n

Kylie Cosmetics skyrocketed, then collapsed. Lady Gaga\u2019s early Haus Labs launch fizzled. JLo Beauty barely registered.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere have been a lot of brands from celebrities. Many have failed, some have succeeded and some are just hanging on,\u201d said David Swartz, senior equity analyst for consumer research at Morningstar.<\/p>\n

Analysts, including Swartz, point specifically to Kylie Cosmetics, which Coty Inc. bought a majority stake in for $600 million in 2020, as one of the more unfortunate cases. The deal was widely criticized as overvalued, and Coty Inc.\u2019s SEC filings later reflected steep sales declines.<\/p>\n

\u201cSales may be strong to begin with, then fall off significantly. Kylie\u2019s sales exploded, then fell like a rock,\u201d Swartz said.<\/p>\n

\u201cCelebrities are very good for awareness and trial, but they don\u2019t guarantee repeat purchase,\u201d said Jeff Lindquist, managing director and partner at Boston Consulting Group with a focus on consumer practice. \u201cWhat really matters is product durability.\u201d<\/p>\n

Sandler doubled down on this statement.<\/p>\n

\u201cConsumers are inherently cynical. When they see something inauthentic, they\u2019re quick to denounce a brand,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

Lindquist recently published a report on Gen Z consumers, titled \u201cThe New Face of Beauty: Inside the Teen Mindset,\u201d<\/a> which looked into the spending habits of this demographic. His findings highlighted how critical authenticity is when deciding to make a purchase and how it became somewhat of a make-or-break factor.<\/p>\n

\u201cGen Z, actually, I think, is the generation that’s really also picking up on that and being skeptical about what they’re being sold,\u201d he said. \u201cThey’re realizing that all of these people that are fun to watch on whatever, they’re actually trying to sell me something.\u201d<\/p>\n

Rhode, backed by Bieber\u2019s \u201cclean girl\u201d aesthetic, already has strong Gen Z traction. Its patented phone case, which contains a holder for its peptide lip tints, went viral upon its release in February 2024. Its virality resulted in a waitlist between \u201c200,000 and 400,000 people,\u201d as reported by Vogue in April 2024<\/a>, and prompted a restock less than two months later.<\/p>\n

Public figures, including influencer Alexandra Saint Mleux, two-time Olympic gold medalist Sunisa Lee and pop star Tate McRae, were spotted with the cases. Saint Mleux and McRae, who both have a large Gen Z following, even fronted campaigns for the brand \u2013 solidifying its reach among the younger consumers.<\/p>\n

Madhav Pitaliya, an analyst at Coresight Research who tracks global consumer companies, noted how success in this category comes through a combination of product performance, celebrity image and staying true to what the product claims to be.<\/p>\n

\u201cRare Beauty, for example, (Gomez) presented the products as vegan and cruelty-free, and whatever we are seeing now is whatever she promised,\u201d he said. \u201cShe achieved that trust through selling the products to the consumers. . . . Rare Beauty and Rhode are very great examples of how the success of celebrity-led brands is driven by influencing people and providing a better product.\u201d<\/p>\n

Looking at the partnership between E.l.f. Beauty and Rhode, Pitaliya described it as a \u201csynergistic effect\u201d where \u201cE.l.f. expands Rhode\u2019s reach, and Rhode brings Gen Z-focused products.\u201d<\/p>\n

Leah Fey, a business consulting research associate and E.l.f. Beauty consumer, said she\u2019s eager to see the partnership \u201cflourish\u201d as it will bring Rhode into the wider market, including physical retailers such as Sephora in September.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019ll be so much easier to test it out in person,\u201d she said. \u201cBut for me, it\u2019s not just about the product. It\u2019s about the mission and the values behind it. If a celebrity really stands for something, that matters.\u201d<\/p>\n

On the other hand, Kat Smit, a systems engineer who frequently purchases from E.l.f. Beauty, doesn\u2019t share the same enthusiasm as Fey.<\/p>\n

\u201cCelebrity ties don\u2019t influence me at all,\u201d she said. \u201cI buy based on quality and price. That\u2019s why I love E.l.f., because it\u2019s affordable and (it) works. Rhode feels more prestige than budget, but maybe this acquisition will help E.l.f. expand its reach.\u201d<\/p>\n

E.l.f. is known for its affordability (averaging $6.50 per product)<\/a>, whereas Rhode\u2019s product prices range from $20 to $135. Rhode\u2019s higher-end positioning complements E.l.f. Beauty\u2019s mass-market appeal, slotting both into the growing \u201cmasstige\u201d category, which includes products priced between drugstore and prestige.<\/p>\n

Research projections from Trilogy Laboratories estimated the U.S. skincare market will reach approximately $23.85 billion in 2024,<\/a>\u00a0growing from $22.90 billion the previous year. Masstige products continue to fuel much of that growth.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe masstige middle has seen a tremendous amount of growth in skin care, in body care, in color cosmetics, in hair care. It\u2019s really been where a lot of the growth of like \u2018challenger brands\u2019 has come in is playing in that middle . . . offering higher quality at a more accessible price,\u201d Lindquist said.<\/p>\n

Social media has accelerated that trend. Dermatologists, influencers and so-called skin-tellectuals on TikTok drive experimentation and longer routines.<\/p>\n

TikTok videos tagged #RhodeSkin have attracted millions of views, with users posting \u201cget ready with me\u201d routines that prominently feature Bieber\u2019s peptide lip treatment and cleansers. Lindquist said he believes social media drives value through allowing brands to be discovered and providing research for consumers, a dynamic that explains why brands like Rhode can scale so quickly.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere has been a sheer amount of innovation in the (beauty and skin care) space across categories,\u201d Lindquist said. \u201cProducts that are innovative, things that are blending categories and then, frankly, ones that are just viral because of the amount of celebrity force behind them, that are just causing folks to be obsessed with the newness and trying to consistently buy and add new products and steps to their routines.\u201d<\/p>\n

But behind the buzz, the industry faces pressure from rising costs and tariffs, and E.l.f. Beauty is not spared from that.<\/p>\n

In its most recent SEC filing, the company reported $980.9 million in sales for the nine months ended Dec. 31, 2024, with net sales increasing by $278.1 million. It also listed 82 employees in China in its 2023 annual report, underscoring its dependence on overseas production.<\/p>\n

\u201cTariffs definitely had a huge impact on beauty products,\u201d Pitaliya said. \u201cThe companies that have huge dependency on countries in the APAC (Asia-Pacific) region for raw products are, I would say, in a bad shape due to tariffs. While overall the picture still remains solid, (they) have either shifted to local manufacturing or reduced their intake from the countries where they used to import the products.\u201d<\/p>\n

Yale\u2019s Budget Lab has stated the weighted average U.S. tariff rate on consumer goods rose from 2.4% in January to a 28% peak in April, before easing to 16.6% effective in August.<\/p>\n

To offset costs, E.l.f. Beauty raised prices by $1 across its product line in August. This was just the third increase in its 21-year history<\/a>, according to Harrison Brooks of AInvest.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s an industry with strong pricing power,\u201d Swartz said. \u201cTariffs may lead to some product cuts, but not collapse the category.\u201d<\/p>\n

That said, Kovack sees the Rhode deal as a double-edged sword in this climate.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think what you get with celebrity and influencer brands is a head start. You have an audience that ostensibly can convert to sales. You get all the buzz, it’s new,\u201d she said. \u201cWhere it gets difficult is now you’ve got to build a business under that launch. I think at that stage, the playing field gets a little more evened out because now you’re competing against bigger brands with bigger budgets.\u201d<\/p>\n

Kovack added deals involving celebrity and influencer brand tie-ins should be structured in a way that keeps them engaged because \u201call of a sudden they’re on to the next project,\u201d posing a potential risk in terms of focus. In Rhode\u2019s case, E.l.f. Beauty\u2019s acquisition brought in Bieber as a strategic advisor for E.l.f. alongside the financial aspects of the deal, which include \u201c$600 million in cash, $200 million in shares and a potential $200 million earnout based on the brand\u2019s growth over the next three years,\u201d as reported by the Business of Fashion in May<\/a>.<\/p>\n

For consumers like Fey, the excitement is about access, whereas for those like Smit, it\u2019s about value. As for investors? Lindquist said it\u2019s about whether the hype translates into repeat business.<\/p>\n

Vogue Business reported in the same post-acquisition August article that \u201cElf Beauty\u2019s net sales were up 9 percent year-on-year to $353.7 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2026,\u201d showing a positive outlook for the partnership.<\/p>\n

Rhode may prove to be E.l.f. Beauty\u2019s biggest growth engine yet, should its upward trajectory continue \u2013 but as seen with other celebrity-tied companies, it could also be a reminder that in this industry, star power shines brightest in the beginning.<\/p>\n

\u201cOn the acquisition side, I’m kind of mixed on where that will go because there have been some success stories, but there have (also) been acquisitions that end up being big losses for companies because of the link to celebrities,\u201d Lindquist said. \u201cI think acquirers will continue to be skeptical, but what they’re going to look for is if there is a key person or persons involved in the brand that are authentic and are playing in the space that is true to who they are, backed by products that are actually really good and products that people can get behind. . . . But I don’t think we\u2019ll see a tsunami of deals. I think people are being a lot more cautious.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bianca Javate recently graduated from Northwestern\u2019s Medill School of Journalism, with a specialization in sports media and a concentration in business. You can follow her on Instagram @biancajavate and see the rest of her work on biancajavate.com.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Bianca Javate Medill Reports When E.l.f. Beauty announced May 29 it would acquire Hailey Bieber\u2019s skin care line Rhode for $1 billion, its stock surged 24% in just a few days. This is an unusually sharp move as, based on historical market data compiled by Financial Samurai and DataTrek Research, the S&P 500 typically […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":998,"featured_media":106072,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[452,27,5539,5542],"tags":[938,5537,5536,5534,5538,5535],"class_list":["post-106051","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-beyond-chicago","category-business","category-fall-2025","category-msj25","tag-beauty","tag-elf-beauty","tag-hailey-bieber","tag-rhode","tag-sephora","tag-skincare"],"yoast_head":"\nE.l.f. 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