{"id":19541,"date":"2015-11-04T19:07:29","date_gmt":"2015-11-05T01:07:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/?p=19541"},"modified":"2015-11-05T17:04:01","modified_gmt":"2015-11-05T23:04:01","slug":"daryl-morey-on-stats-surprises-and-shutdowns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/daryl-morey-on-stats-surprises-and-shutdowns\/","title":{"rendered":"Daryl Morey on stats, surprises and shutdown defense"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Nick Zazulia<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

You rarely hear basketball fans praise a missed shot by their favorite team.<\/p>\n

You will if you talk to Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey.<\/p>\n

In a telephone interview before the season started last week, \u200bMorey used that as an example of how the game has changed in recent years. As the first NBA GM with an analytics background, Morey helped pioneer the use of advanced metrics to build an NBA roster.<\/p>\n

\"James<\/a>
Houston’s Bearded Bomber, James Harden, was Morey’s signature acquisition in a blockbuster trade with Oklahoma City prior to the 2012 season. Since then, Harden has been named to three straight All-Star teams. (Houston Rockets\/Courtesy)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

He has no rings so far, but the returns have been promising. At the dawn of the Rockets\u2019 ninth season with Morey at the helm, they have a .595 winning percentage under him and no losing seasons.<\/p>\n

And after an underwhelming 0-3 start to Year Nine, a Monday night win over the Oklahoma City Thunder has the Rockets’ hype train rolling again.<\/p>\n

In a telephone interview with Medill News Service before the regular season opened last week, Morey shed some light on his career, the field of analytics and what he expects to see this season, in which many<\/a> expect the Rockets<\/a> to be a contender<\/a> in the tough West<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Q: I know you focused on statistics in undergrad at NU before heading to MIT. Could you talk about if and how that prepared you for ultimately bringing such an analytical management style to the Celtics and Rockets? <\/em><\/p>\n

A: I think very much in the same way taking philosophy classes prepares you for life later, the critical thinking skills in computer science did the same. (While the field of quantitative analysis has evolved), a lot of the statistical techniques are pretty straight-forward, you just need to know how to use them. It\u2019s like a hammer, you just need to know what you\u2019re doing with the tool.
\n<\/p>\n

\n

The Making of Morey<\/h1>\n

Unlike any GMs before him, Daryl Morey\u2019s background includes a computer science degree from Northwestern University, an MBA from the MIT and work as a strategy consultant and statistician.<\/p>\n

Houston\u2019s style of play and management under Morey\u2019s direction has been dubbed \u201cMoreyball\u201d by fans, a reference to Michael Lewis\u2019 book, \u201cMoneyball.\u201d<\/p>\n

In 2009, Lewis actually wrote a lengthy piece<\/a> on then-Rocket Shane Battier for The New York Times, casting Morey as the NBA\u2019s analogue to Billy Beane, who famously used metrics to transform baseball\u2019s Oakland Athletics into a lean contender around the turn of the century.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Question: Can you identify any specific things that numbers revealed to you that really went counter to conventional wisdom? <\/em><\/p>\n

Answer: Missed shots aren\u2019t all that bad, because you get the opportunity to rebound them. Pretty simple one, but, for example, mostly people (just) know that 2-for-6 from 3 (point range) is the same (number of points) as 3-for-6 from 2 (point range) and don\u2019t go beyond that. But a rebound is another opportunity for you, so that chance is valuable.<\/p>\n

Q: Conversely, can you think of any particular times that you\u2019ve drawn a conclusion from data that turned out to be unsound and led to bad decisions?<\/em><\/p>\n

A: All of our decisions have been good. (Laughter)<\/p>\n

On defense, there are some individual defenders that, without the synergy of the bigs behind them, are not as good. I\u2019d say the second-order effects of defenders playing with other defenders is maybe more important than we thought.<\/p>\n

For example, our defense was pretty good last year: top three with Dwight (Howard) on the floor, but we weren\u2019t nearly as good without him.<\/p>\n

[field name=”defensive data”]<\/p>\n

Q: As someone who relies on and believes strongly in quantitative<\/em><\/p>\n

\"Clint<\/a>
Morey expects sophomore big Clint Capela to take a big step forward this season in relief of Dwight Howard. (Houston Rockets\/Courtesy)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

analysis, what do you think the limits or weaknesses of that lens are? What sort of things are difficult to reflect in metrics?<\/em><\/p>\n

A: Everything is obviously reflected in some analysis: you know the final score, you know who won and who lost, who won and lost the last few trips up the floor, so everything is accounted for. It\u2019s really just knowing what\u2019s happening on the floor at 25 frames a second (with the SportsVU player-tracking software<\/a> and cameras that are now installed in every NBA arena) and how well you can interpret that data.<\/p>\n

Q: Who around the NBA do you think will really defy expectations this year and why?<\/em><\/p>\n

A: Well, I\u2019m not allowed to comment on other teams, but with the Rockets, (power forward\/center and 2014 first-round draft pick) Clint Capela. He will get a lot of opportunity with Dwight Howard out (with lingering tightness in his back), and I think he will prove to be a top 10 player at the position some day.<\/p>\n

[field name=”Rockets data”]<\/p>\n

Photo at top: Houston Rockets GM and Northwestern alum Daryl Morey talks with star center and defensive presence Dwight Howard after a win. (Houston Rockets\/Courtesy)<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Nick Zazulia You rarely hear basketball fans praise a missed shot by their favorite team. You will if you talk to Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey. In a telephone interview before the season started last week, \u200bMorey used that as an example of how the game has changed in recent years. As the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":162,"featured_media":19780,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[452,509,31],"tags":[192],"class_list":["post-19541","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-beyond-chicago","category-fall-2015","category-sports","tag-promo"],"yoast_head":"\nDaryl Morey on stats, surprises and shutdown defense - Medill Reports Chicago<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/daryl-morey-on-stats-surprises-and-shutdowns\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Daryl Morey on stats, surprises and shutdown defense - Medill Reports Chicago\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Nick Zazulia You rarely hear basketball fans praise a missed shot by their favorite team. You will if you talk to Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey. In a telephone interview before the season started last week, \u200bMorey used that as an example of how the game has changed in recent years. As the […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/daryl-morey-on-stats-surprises-and-shutdowns\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Medill Reports Chicago\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-11-05T01:07:29+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2015-11-05T23:04:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/medill.wordpress.offload\/WP%20Media%20Folder%20-%20medill-reports-chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/11\/Morey-Dwightup.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1710\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1122\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Nick Zazulia\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Nick Zazulia\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/daryl-morey-on-stats-surprises-and-shutdowns\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/daryl-morey-on-stats-surprises-and-shutdowns\/\",\"name\":\"Daryl Morey on stats, surprises and shutdown defense - Medill Reports Chicago\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/daryl-morey-on-stats-surprises-and-shutdowns\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/daryl-morey-on-stats-surprises-and-shutdowns\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/medill.wordpress.offload\/WP%20Media%20Folder%20-%20medill-reports-chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/11\/Morey-Dwightup.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2015-11-05T01:07:29+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2015-11-05T23:04:01+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/#\/schema\/person\/19defc94c31e6ddaad36677073e96d19\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/daryl-morey-on-stats-surprises-and-shutdowns\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/daryl-morey-on-stats-surprises-and-shutdowns\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/daryl-morey-on-stats-surprises-and-shutdowns\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/medill.wordpress.offload\/WP%20Media%20Folder%20-%20medill-reports-chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/11\/Morey-Dwightup.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/medill.wordpress.offload\/WP%20Media%20Folder%20-%20medill-reports-chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/11\/Morey-Dwightup.jpg\",\"width\":1710,\"height\":1122,\"caption\":\"Rockets GM Daryl Morey talks to star center Dwight Howard\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/daryl-morey-on-stats-surprises-and-shutdowns\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Daryl Morey on stats, surprises and shutdown defense\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/\",\"name\":\"Medill Reports Chicago\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/#\/schema\/person\/19defc94c31e6ddaad36677073e96d19\",\"name\":\"Nick Zazulia\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1b490c8802132af59eeb7289a40292b93c3ffad5700366896af62d1c687b131a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1b490c8802132af59eeb7289a40292b93c3ffad5700366896af62d1c687b131a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Nick Zazulia\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/author\/nicholaszazulia\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Daryl Morey on stats, surprises and shutdown defense - Medill Reports Chicago","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/daryl-morey-on-stats-surprises-and-shutdowns\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Daryl Morey on stats, surprises and shutdown defense - Medill Reports Chicago","og_description":"By Nick Zazulia You rarely hear basketball fans praise a missed shot by their favorite team. You will if you talk to Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey. In a telephone interview before the season started last week, \u200bMorey used that as an example of how the game has changed in recent years. As the […]","og_url":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/daryl-morey-on-stats-surprises-and-shutdowns\/","og_site_name":"Medill Reports Chicago","article_published_time":"2015-11-05T01:07:29+00:00","article_modified_time":"2015-11-05T23:04:01+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1710,"height":1122,"url":"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/medill.wordpress.offload\/WP%20Media%20Folder%20-%20medill-reports-chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/11\/Morey-Dwightup.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Nick Zazulia","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Nick Zazulia","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/daryl-morey-on-stats-surprises-and-shutdowns\/","url":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/daryl-morey-on-stats-surprises-and-shutdowns\/","name":"Daryl Morey on stats, surprises and shutdown defense - Medill Reports Chicago","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/daryl-morey-on-stats-surprises-and-shutdowns\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/daryl-morey-on-stats-surprises-and-shutdowns\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/medill.wordpress.offload\/WP%20Media%20Folder%20-%20medill-reports-chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/11\/Morey-Dwightup.jpg","datePublished":"2015-11-05T01:07:29+00:00","dateModified":"2015-11-05T23:04:01+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/#\/schema\/person\/19defc94c31e6ddaad36677073e96d19"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/daryl-morey-on-stats-surprises-and-shutdowns\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/daryl-morey-on-stats-surprises-and-shutdowns\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/daryl-morey-on-stats-surprises-and-shutdowns\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/medill.wordpress.offload\/WP%20Media%20Folder%20-%20medill-reports-chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/11\/Morey-Dwightup.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/medill.wordpress.offload\/WP%20Media%20Folder%20-%20medill-reports-chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/11\/Morey-Dwightup.jpg","width":1710,"height":1122,"caption":"Rockets GM Daryl Morey talks to star center Dwight Howard"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/daryl-morey-on-stats-surprises-and-shutdowns\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Daryl Morey on stats, surprises and shutdown defense"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/#website","url":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/","name":"Medill Reports Chicago","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/#\/schema\/person\/19defc94c31e6ddaad36677073e96d19","name":"Nick Zazulia","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1b490c8802132af59eeb7289a40292b93c3ffad5700366896af62d1c687b131a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1b490c8802132af59eeb7289a40292b93c3ffad5700366896af62d1c687b131a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Nick Zazulia"},"url":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/author\/nicholaszazulia\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19541","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/162"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19541"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19541\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19780"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19541"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19541"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19541"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}