{"id":26803,"date":"2016-01-28T16:38:45","date_gmt":"2016-01-28T22:38:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/?p=26803"},"modified":"2016-01-28T16:38:45","modified_gmt":"2016-01-28T22:38:45","slug":"a-promising-future-for-mondelez-if-cost-cutting-succeeds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/a-promising-future-for-mondelez-if-cost-cutting-succeeds\/","title":{"rendered":"A promising future for Mondelez, if cost-cutting succeeds"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Sony Kassam<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Known for its Cadbury chocolates and Oreo cookies, the snacks food and beverage company Mondelez International Inc. has a hopeful long-term future, analysts say,\u00a0if it continues to shrink costs, improve efficiency, and survive the volatile commodity market.<\/p>\n

The Deerfield, Ill.-based company is a leading provider of confectionary products with over $3 billion in annual sales. Over the past six months, Mondelez has taken multiple actions to expand its business overseas and upgrade its aged facilities as a way to advance the company’s growth and reduce supply chain and overhead costs.<\/p>\n

A Bloomberg survey of 17 analysts estimates a 12-month target price of $48.82, up a formidable 18.7 percent from Wednesday and a 0.5 percent increase from the 52-week high of $48.58. Mondelez\u2019s stock traded Wednesday\u00a0at $41.12, up 13.9 percent from a year ago. Of 26 analysts surveyed, 18 recommend buying it, while\u00a0seven say hold.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u201cThe strength of the firm\u2019s competitive positioning is evident in its adjusted returns on invested capital, which have historically exceeded our 7 percent weighted average cost of capital estimate,\u201d wrote Morningstar senior equity analyst Erin Lash in a report, \u201cand we forecast that ROICs will approach 17 percent over the next five years, supporting our stance on the firm\u2019s wide economic moat.\u201d<\/p>\n

During a third quarter conference call in October, Mondelez\u2019s management reiterated its intention to save $1.5 billion annually by 2018.<\/p>\n

Morningstar expects cost-reduction efforts to result in even\u00a0greater savings\u00a0than Mondelez\u2019s target, money that\u00a0would be allocated for brand marketing to support its intangible assets. Recently, Mondelez released two new Oreo cookie flavors to the U.S. market, Red Velvet and Cinnamon Bun, and launched a new \u201cOpen Up with Oreo\u201d <\/a>campaign.<\/p>\n

\"Oreo
Two flavors of Oreo cookies were released earlier this month, both of which will join Oreo’s permanent product line-up in the U.S. (Sony Kassam\/MEDILL)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cWe expect the firm will bump up its research and development and marketing spend to more than 8 percent of sales over the next 10 years (or $3.5 billion), above the nearly 6 percent of sales ($2 billion) it has historically allocated toward brand reinvestment,\u201d\u00a0wrote Lash.<\/p>\n

Mondelez acquired an 80 percent stake in Vietnam\u2019s leading snacks business, Kinh Do, in July 2015. The acquisition joined Kinh Do\u2019s mooncakes and other goods with Mondelez\u2019s global brands, allowing Mondelez to be exposed to 90 million consumers of snack products in Vietnam, according to a press release<\/a>.<\/p>\n

During that month, Mondelez also invested more than $130 million to open up four new manufacturing lines in Salinas, Mexico. The construction is expected to be complete in the middle of this year.<\/p>\n

With these new manufacturing lines in place, the company\u2019s Chicago plant will eliminate its nine old and inefficient lines, moving its Oreo, Ritz and Honey Maid graham crackers operations to Mexico. Last week Mondelez confirmed pending layoffs<\/a> at its Southwest Side plant, which currently has 277 workers.<\/p>\n

Additionally, in September 2015, Mondelez opened a $30 million manufacturing line in Poland <\/a>to support the growth of the European confectionary business as a way to reduce costs and improve productivity.<\/p>\n

Mondelez is also on its way to migrating more than 40 percent of its white-collar jobs, such as human resources and finance, to global shared service centers that serve multiple companies. According to Chairman and CEO Irene Rosenfeld\u00a0in October, this migration will \u201creduce cost on average by half, enabling additional savings through and beyond 2018.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"IreneRosenfeld\"
Irene Rosenfeld, chairman and CEO of Mondelez International, talks during Fortune’s Most Powerful Women Summit in 2012. ( Stuart Isett\/Flickr<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

During the third quarter conference call, Brian Gladden, chief financial officer and executive vice president of Mondelez International, said reducing the company\u2019s supply chain and overhead costs \u201chas enabled us to expand operating margins in each region while also fueling incremental investments behind our Power Brands and innovation platforms to drive revenue growth and improve market share in our key markets and categories.\u201d<\/p>\n

Analysts at Zacks Investment Research believe Mondelez is \u201cwell on track\u201d to fulfill its 2016 adjusted operating margin target of 15 to 16 percent. They\u00a0maintain a hold rating for the company.<\/p>\n

The adjusted operating margin excludes impacts of the company\u2019s 2012 spin-off costs and its restructuring programs as well as acquisition integration costs, according to a Mondelez press release<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Chartered Financial Analyst at Argus Research John Staszak also recommends holding Mondelez\u2019s shares, but his adjusted operating margin estimate is down 0.4 percentage point from Mondelez\u2019s target.<\/p>\n

\u201cReflecting supply-chain improvements, more efficient ad spending and staff reductions, we expect the adjusted operating margin to increase from 12.9 percent in 2014 to 13.8 percent in 2015 and 14.6 percent in 2016,\u201d Staszak wrote in a report.<\/p>\n

During the most recent quarter, the adjusted operating margin for Mondelez was 14.1 percent.<\/p>\n

However, Morningstar anticipates that Mondelez\u2019s reinvesting, following mergers and acquisitions, will \u201ctake top billing over the next few years.\u201d<\/p>\n

Challenges still remain for Mondelez from input cost pressures of raw commodities such as cocoa. In May, it finalized a $400 million cocoa sustainability program<\/a> in Indonesia, and in July, the company\u2019s coffee business merged with D.E. Master Blenders 1753<\/a> to form a new Dutch coffee company. Mondelez received a 44 percent stake in the merger.<\/p>\n

In an e-mail, Lash, of Morningstar,\u00a0said the headwinds \u201care likely from higher transportation costs because of a truck driver shortage and higher cocoa\u201d and they \u201chave persisted, signaling that macro tailwinds have failed to enhance its profitability.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lash further\u00a0stated that\u00a0Mondelez\u2019s new production lines have not proved profitable yet as start-up costs have\u00a0meant that \u00a0savings are only\u00a0slowly emerging from the new, efficient manufacturing processes.<\/p>\n

\u201cSo while we think the prospect of further cost improvement is viable, we presume the market could lose sight of Mondelez\u2019s long-term potential if operating margins hit a snag,\u201d Lash wrote in the e-mail.<\/p>\n

Morningstar forecasts that dividends paid by Mondelez will grow in the high single-digit percent range annually through 2024.\u00a0The dividends\u00a0have indeed been rising over the past few years. Mondelez paid a total dividend of 64 cents per share in 2015,\u00a0up from\u00a058 cents per share in 2014 and 54 cents in 2013.<\/p>\n

Annual dividends per share since 2013 (in dollars)<\/h2>\n

[field name=”chart”]<\/p>\n

Analysts predict dividends paid by Mondelez to hit high single-digit range in 2016 based on trend. (Sony Kassam\/MEDILL)<\/div>\n

Morningstar estimates $1.85 earnings per share diluted for 2015 and $2.21 earnings per share diluted for 2016,\u00a0making the latter forecast a 19.5 percent increase from the 2015 estimate. Meanwhile, Argus Research estimates $1.75 earnings per share for 2015 and $2.06 for 2016.<\/p>\n

Mondelez will release its fourth quarter and full-year earnings for 2015 on Wednesday, Feb. 3.<\/p>\n

Photo at top: Photograph of Mondelez International Inc. headquarters, located at Three Parkway North, Deerfield, Ill. (Mike Mitchell\/Wikimedia Commons<\/a>)<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Sony Kassam Known for its Cadbury chocolates and Oreo cookies, the snacks food and beverage company Mondelez International Inc. has a hopeful long-term future, analysts say,\u00a0if it continues to shrink costs, improve efficiency, and survive the volatile commodity market. The Deerfield, Ill.-based company is a leading provider of confectionary products with over $3 billion […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":197,"featured_media":26843,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27,585],"tags":[1086,1093,61,1084,86,1094,111,1083,1092],"class_list":["post-26803","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","category-winter-2016","tag-argus-research","tag-cadbury","tag-chicago","tag-deerfield","tag-earnings","tag-food-producer","tag-illinois","tag-mondelez-international","tag-oreos"],"yoast_head":"\nA promising future for Mondelez, if cost-cutting succeeds - Medill Reports Chicago<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/a-promising-future-for-mondelez-if-cost-cutting-succeeds\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A promising future for Mondelez, if cost-cutting succeeds - Medill Reports Chicago\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Sony Kassam Known for its Cadbury chocolates and Oreo cookies, the snacks food and beverage company Mondelez International Inc. has a hopeful long-term future, analysts say,\u00a0if it continues to shrink costs, improve efficiency, and survive the volatile commodity market. 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