{"id":31327,"date":"2016-02-24T15:03:49","date_gmt":"2016-02-24T21:03:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/?p=31327"},"modified":"2016-02-24T15:42:17","modified_gmt":"2016-02-24T21:42:17","slug":"once-booming-pakistans-bourse-now-sees-some-bloody-days","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/once-booming-pakistans-bourse-now-sees-some-bloody-days\/","title":{"rendered":"Once booming, Pakistan’s bourse now sees some bloody days"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Harvard Zhang<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Karachi, Pakistan<\/strong> — The year 2016 promised much, but so far delivered little in return as the KSE-100 Index has shed 5.5 percent.<\/p>\n

Pakistan\u2019s equity market has been subject to a persistent drain of foreign investment amid a global selloff since the beginning of the year, despite the January merger of three stock exchanges that was intended\u00a0to attract more foreign investment.<\/p>\n

Even though foreign investors are encouraged by Pakistan\u2019s growth potential rooted in its young demographics and opportunities created by the $46-billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects, this frontier market still needs to address structural and regulatory issues and improve national security to engage foreign interest while weathering a tumultuous global financial environment.<\/p>\n

\u201c2016 will be a difficult year,\u201d said Nadeem Naqvi, managing director of the Pakistan Stock Exchange Ltd. \u201cWe\u2019ve seen some foreign portfolio investment outflows primarily in the oil and gas sector which has a major impact on the index.\u201d<\/p>\n

Since New Year\u2019s Day, foreign investors have\u00a0withdrawn $82.4 million net\u00a0as of Feb. 19. Last week the benchmark KSE-100 Index slid for four consecutive days, shedding 2.9 percent. It’s down\u00a06.7 percent year-to-date, defying the authorities\u2019 effort to attract foreign capital by integrating the stock exchanges of Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

The outflow came on the back of large redemptions\u00a0from mutual funds\u00a0whose heavily-weighted stocks include Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd. and MCB Bank Ltd., according to Beidi Gu, a portfolio manager at New York City-based Caravel Management LLC, which has $600 million under management, 40 percent of which is in frontier markets including Pakistan.<\/p>\n

The stock exchange had 554 companies listed in 2015, and the market capitalization was $66.5 billion. In comparison, the Bombay stock market in India was more than 20 times larger at $1.51 trillion.<\/p>\n

KSE-100 Index annual percentage changes<\/h2>\n

[field name=”harvard1″]<\/p>\n

The benchmark KSE-100 Index rose at an annual average of 18 percent in the past 10 years. (Harvard Zhang\/MEDILL)<\/div>\n

About one third of Pakistan’s\u00a0free-float shares valued at $6 billion are held by foreign investors, mainly institutional players including Franklin Resources Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.<\/p>\n

U.S. investment accounts for more than 50 percent of the foreign portfolio, according to Mohammed Sohail, CEO of Topline Securities,\u00a0which handles 20 percent of the market\u2019s foreign portfolio investments.<\/p>\n

Foreign investors withdrew\u00a0$315.2 million in 2015 after two years of\u00a0injecting\u00a0more than $380 million. The stock index, comprising 100 common stocks picked on the basis of companies\u2019 market capitalization and business sectors, rose at an annual average of 18 percent in the past 10 years.<\/p>\n

Not\u00a0expecting a\u00a0continuation of\u00a0the average annual index growth of\u00a018 percent in the last ten years, Naqvi said he \u201cwill be happy to see a 12 to 15 percent annual return at the end of 2016.\u201d<\/p>\n

Others echo the view<\/h2>\n

\u201cThis is a tough and negative environment for frontier markets like Pakistan,\u201d said Win Thin, senior vice president and global head of Emerging Market Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. \u201cGlobal growth has slowed, U.S. dollar is stronger and interest rates are up, commodity prices have crashed \u2014 a lot of factors that have contributed to the market boom in the last 10 years have faded away.\u201d<\/p>\n

Frontier markets in developing countries, with smaller market capitalization and less liquidity than emerging markets\u00a0like China and India, attract investors with relatively high tolerance to volatility to pursue high returns.<\/p>\n

But frontier-market funds have been grappling with negative returns this year. Templeton Frontier Markets Fund, with a $23-million stake in Pakistan\u2019s market at the end of 2015, had a negative year-to-date return of 6.3 percent and a negative one-year return of 26.5 percent\u00a0as of\u00a0Feb. 18.<\/p>\n

Despite headwinds confronting frontier markets generally, the PSX is looking to a June decision of New York City-based equity indices provider MSCI Inc., on whether\u00a0it will\u00a0be included in the\u00a0MSCI Emerging Markets Index, according to Naqvi.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve seen historically that whenever a market gets included in the emerging market universe there would be a significant inflow of big funds and repositions of portfolio,\u201d Naqvi said. \u201cIn a small market like Pakistan, even if 200 or $300 million comes in, the indices will go up substantially.\u201d<\/p>\n

Foreign investment changes in Pakistan’s listed equities<\/h2>\n

[field name=”harvard2″]<\/p>\n

Foreign investors withdrew $315.2 million in 2015 after injecting\u00a0more than $380 million in the previous two years. (Harvard Zhang\/MEDILL)<\/div>\n

Pakistan\u2019s currency has been relatively stable over the past two years despite the U.S. dollar\u2019s appreciation against other currencies. The Pakistani rupee stood at 104.8\u00a0to the\u00a0dollar on Feb. 19, little changed from February 2014. Meanwhile the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which measure\u2019s the greenback\u2019s performance among 10 peers, has risen nearly 20 percent.<\/p>\n

Foreign investors look to the potential for consumption growth in the world\u2019s sixth most populous country. More than 60 percent of 181.2 million Pakistanis in 2013 were under 25 years old, according to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and the World Bank.<\/p>\n

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, or\u00a0CPEC,\u00a0is expected to boost the capital-raising efforts\u00a0of companies supporting a slew of infrastructure and energy upgrading projects. Naqvi said he foresees at least $2 billion to $3 billion raised in the power sector in fiscal 2017.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn the next 24 months, people will see the reality, not just talk, as CPEC projects get implemented,\u201d Naqvi said. \u201cA lot of ancillary industries will be needed to support these projects. Almost all cement companies have announced doubling their capacity.\u201d<\/p>\n

Despite record-low oil prices hovering around $30 a barrel that is beneficial for a net oil importer, investors are concerned that Pakistan\u00a0might neglect to\u00a0undertake tax and business reforms necessary for long-term growth.<\/p>\n

Tax reforms needed<\/h3>\n

\u201cThe cyclical factor of oil price is almost a perfect scenario for Pakistan right now,\u201d Gu of Caravel Management said. \u201cYet we have concerns that the government is not taking this window to reform its tax collection and energy policy including privatization.\u201d<\/p>\n

Pakistan has one of the worst tax collection records in the world. The country\u2019s tax-to-GDP ratio was only 9.5 percent in 2015, compared to the average of 34.4 percent in 2014 for 34 advanced and emerging countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.<\/p>\n

Terrorist attacks in the country still unnerve foreign investors despite the authorities\u2019 continuous efforts to wipe out terrorism. Only faring better than Iraq, Afghanistan and Nigeria, Pakistan suffered the brunt of the fourth deadliest impact of terrorism out of more than 160 countries in 2015, according to a Global Terrorism Index report by the Institute for Economics and Peace.<\/p>\n

\u201cSecurity issues have been a major hurdle historically and remains one of the biggest concerns of foreign investors,\u201d Sohail of Topline Securities said. \u201cBut the situation has been improving.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Karachi-based stock market\u2019s small size and lack of liquidity renders it vulnerable to manipulation despite attractive price-earnings ratios. Less than two-fifths of all\u00a0the shares of listed companies\u00a0were\u00a0actually\u00a0available in the market in 2015.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe main concern of foreign investors is about the market\u2019s liquidity,\u201d Naqvi said. \u201cWe are working on the implementation of requiring all companies listed to maintain a minimum 25 percent of free-float shares at all times.\u201d<\/p>\n

Fraudulent trading has also been a chronic malady for Pakistan\u2019s equity market, which prompted the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan to declare insider trading \u201can offence\u201d and tighten securities regulations last year to regain the trust of investors.<\/p>\n

A version of this story was originally published in\u00a0The Express Tribune<\/a>\u00a0in Pakistan on Feb. 22, 2016<\/em>, as part of a joint reporting project of the Medill News Service\u00a0and the Center for Excellence in Journalism in Karachi.<\/i><\/p>\n

Photo at top: Pakistan Stock Exchange. Foreign investors have\u00a0withdrawn this year\u00a0$82.4 million net\u00a0as of Feb. 19, while\u00a0the KSE-100 Index shed 5.5 percent. (Harvard Zhang of Medill for The Express Tribune)<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Harvard Zhang Karachi, Pakistan — The year 2016 promised much, but so far delivered little in return as the KSE-100 Index has shed 5.5 percent. Pakistan\u2019s equity market has been subject to a persistent drain of foreign investment amid a global selloff since the beginning of the year, despite the January merger of three […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":224,"featured_media":31335,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[452,27,585],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31327","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-beyond-chicago","category-business","category-winter-2016"],"yoast_head":"\nOnce booming, Pakistan's bourse now sees some bloody days - Medill Reports Chicago<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/once-booming-pakistans-bourse-now-sees-some-bloody-days\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Once booming, Pakistan's bourse now sees some bloody days - Medill Reports Chicago\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Harvard Zhang Karachi, Pakistan — The year 2016 promised much, but so far delivered little in return as the KSE-100 Index has shed 5.5 percent. 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