{"id":36861,"date":"2016-03-10T14:22:46","date_gmt":"2016-03-10T20:22:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/?p=36861"},"modified":"2016-03-10T14:22:46","modified_gmt":"2016-03-10T20:22:46","slug":"interest-rate-stock-market-uncertainties-weigh-on-northern-trust-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/interest-rate-stock-market-uncertainties-weigh-on-northern-trust-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Interest rate, stock market uncertainties weigh on Northern Trust outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Harvard Zhang<\/strong><\/p>\n

Analysts covering Northern Trust Corp. are divided on the financial holding company\u2019s year ahead thanks to a mix of unclear macroeconomic influencers, the corporation\u2019s growth opportunities and its uncertain ability to wield the ax on expenses.<\/p>\n

Clouds gather over the Chicago-based corporation\u2019s outlook with unclear interest rate movements and a volatile equity market. On the other hand, analysts see bright spots in Northern Trust\u2019s growing market share, burgeoning new businesses and its century-old goodwill.<\/p>\n

\u201cEven with the contraction in the first half of this year, they\u2019ll still outperform their peers because they continue to gain market share,\u201d said Marty Mosby, an analyst with Memphis, Tenn.-based brokerage Vining Sparks IBG LP.<\/p>\n

Northern Trust manages and administers assets and provides custodian services for institutions and affluent families with a relatively conservative approach. The company has 16,500 employees in more than 20 locations globally.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

A mix of uncertainties, expectations and tailwinds produce a wide variety of ratings of the stock: 13 out of 23 analysts polled by Bloomberg LP give a hold recommendation, while six say buy and four others sell.<\/p>\n

Analysts expect the company\u2019s stock price to rise 8.9 percent to $69.82 in a year from Wednesday\u2019s close of $63.64.\u00a0The shares have dropped 11.7 percent this year through March 9. In comparison, Standard & Poor\u2019s 500 index declined 2.7 percent in that time frame, while S&P 500 Financials index dropped 8.5 percent.<\/p>\n

Northern Trust\u2019s stock price<\/h2>\n

[field name=”chart1″]<\/p>\n

Northern Trust\u2019s shares dropped 11.7 percent this year as of March 9, while the S&P 500 declined 2.7 percent. (Harvard Zhang\/MEDILL)<\/div>\n

Northern\u2019s Wednesday stock price was more than 15 times the estimated per-share earnings this year, 27 percent above the price-earnings multiple of The Bank of New York Mellon Corp. and 35 percent more than State Street Corp., Northern’s most prominent competitors.<\/p>\n

Northern\u00a0improved its return on common equity \u2013\u00a0measuring the profitability\u00a0of its\u00a0shareholders\u2019 investment \u2013 to 11.4 percent in 2015 from 9.9 percent a year ago.<\/p>\n

However, analysts forecast a 2016 net income of $952.6 million, or per-share earnings of $4.06, up just a slight\u00a01.9 percent from last year\u2019s $935 million, or $3.99 per share.<\/p>\n

Northern Trust\u2019s net income<\/h2>\n

[field name=”chart3″]<\/p>\n

Analysts forecast a 2016 net income of $952.6 million, up 1.9 percent from last year\u2019s $935 million. (Harvard Zhang\/MEDILL)<\/div>\n

Interest rate hikes?<\/h2>\n

Analysts say an anticipated\u00a0interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve this year will do away with Northern’s\u00a0tens of millions of money-market fee waivers, which\u00a0are meant to avoid negative yields for investors reaping minuscule returns on the beaten-down money-market funds.<\/p>\n

More than 40 percent of economists said the next interest-rate hike would be in June, a March Bloomberg LP survey of 44 economists found. The next Fed meeting takes place next week.<\/p>\n

\u201cOne more rate hike of 25 basis points, and they should be able to do away with the negative waived fees they\u2019ve got,\u201d said Mosby of Vining Sparks, who gave a \u201cstrong buy\u201d to the\u00a0stock and a 12-month target price of $73. \u201cYou\u2019ll start looking at net interest margin and interest they\u2019ll generate from their assets going marginally higher, even though short-term interest rates can move very slowly, but surely to a higher level.\u201d<\/p>\n

Historically-low interest rates continue to weigh on Northern\u2019s revenue, even though the $20.5-million money market mutual fund fees the company wrote off in the latest quarter was $12.5 million less than a year ago due to the December rate hike.<\/p>\n

Yields on money-market mutual funds\u2019\u00a0investments in\u00a0such liquid obligations as Treasury bills and commercial paper quickly follow the Fed’s changes in the fed-funds rate.<\/p>\n

Stock market fluctuation<\/h2>\n

The outlook for the firm\u2019s colossal servicing fee revenues remain unclear, as the U.S. equity market hasn\u2019t recovered the loss this year despite a three-week rally. Fees are based on the values of assets under management, so they rise and fall with stock prices.<\/p>\n

The firm\u2019s assets under management shrunk 6.3 percent to $875.3 million at the end of last year from $934.1 million a year ago.<\/p>\n

\u201cNorthern and its peers have been struggling with relatively risk-off investor environment which is hard on their revenues,\u201d said Jeffery Harte, a Chicago-based analyst at Sandler O\u2019Neill & Partners LP, referring to investors’ pulling money out of the stock market and looking for less risky investments.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019ll get better if risk aversion backs off a bit so people start putting more money into equities and alternatives again,\u201d said Harte, who gives\u00a0Northern Trust a\u00a0buy rating and a target price of $68.<\/p>\n

Growth opportunities<\/h2>\n

Northern Trust has been grabbing a larger market share as it explores less price-sensitive areas like outsourced risk, IT and administrative management services for other financial firms, landing global deals and keeps attracting affluent families with its prudent investment strategies.<\/p>\n

\u201cNorthern Trust has a kind of unique growth opportunity as compared to large peers like the Bank of New York and State Street,\u201d Harte said. \u201cIt has enough skills to be significant, but still has a small enough market share that they can grow by getting market share.\u201d<\/p>\n

The corporation had $6.1 trillion of assets under custody at the end of 2015, only 6 percent\u00a0of the custody-business market comparing with Bank of New York Mellon\u2019s and State Street\u2019s 30-percent share each, a Vining Sparks research showed.<\/p>\n

Northern Trust has been growing its assets under custody at an annual pace of 9 percent compared with a market average growth rate of 5 percent for banks with custody assets.<\/p>\n

Market shares: Assets under custody<\/h2>\n

[field name=”chart2″]<\/p>\n

Northern Trust has been growing its assets under custody at an annual pace of 9 percent comparing with a market average growth rate of 5 percent for banks with custody assets. (Harvard Zhang\/MEDILL)<\/div>\n

The corporation has been winning affluent international clients and global custody mandates for pension plans. Non-U.S. revenue was $1.36 billion in 2015, or 28.9 percent of the total, up 38.5 percent in five years.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey\u2019ve found their niche to be able to work globally, and that\u2019s where you started to see some growth,\u201d Mosby of Vining Sparks said. \u201cWhile State Street was getting business in Europe, Northern was able to go into Australia and help them set up a social security system.\u201d<\/p>\n

Curbing expenses<\/h2>\n

In addition to an unclear revenue outlook, the Chicago custodian firm finds it hard to cut spending on regulatory compliance, white-glove service for clients, and technology upgrades to improve efficiency and security.<\/p>\n

Northern Trust CEO Frederick Waddell saw a modest pay increase in 2015 to $12.8 million from $12.4 million a year ago, the company\u2019s March 9 proxy statement showed. Crain\u2019s<\/a> reported last month Northern froze the salaries of its U.S. and European staff until October.<\/p>\n

The company’s expenses growth in the fourth quarter of 2015 from the year-earlier period was approximately 3 percentage points greater than the revenue growth, according to a research report by New York City-based Portales Partners LLC found.<\/p>\n

\u201cExpenses will be flat\u00a0at best, and most likely higher in a year,\u201d said Paul Gulberg, a Portales Partners analyst, in a phone interview. He\u00a0 gives an underperform to Northern Trust stock, predicting it will\u00a0trail the S&P Financials index by 5 percentage points in\u00a0the next\u00a0year.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey\u2019ve been cutting expenses so it\u2019s hard to cut much further, and they have to spend more money on regulatory expenses and technology,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Photo at top: Northern Trust building on LaSalle Steet in downtown Chicago. Analysts are divided on the company\u2019s year ahead. (Harvard Zhang\/MEDILL)<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Harvard Zhang Analysts covering Northern Trust Corp. are divided on the financial holding company\u2019s year ahead thanks to a mix of unclear macroeconomic influencers, the corporation\u2019s growth opportunities and its uncertain ability to wield the ax on expenses. Clouds gather over the Chicago-based corporation\u2019s outlook with unclear interest rate movements and a volatile equity […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":224,"featured_media":36867,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27,585],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36861","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","category-winter-2016"],"yoast_head":"\nInterest rate, stock market uncertainties weigh on Northern Trust outlook - Medill Reports Chicago<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/interest-rate-stock-market-uncertainties-weigh-on-northern-trust-outlook\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Interest rate, stock market uncertainties weigh on Northern Trust outlook - Medill Reports Chicago\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Harvard Zhang Analysts covering Northern Trust Corp. are divided on the financial holding company\u2019s year ahead thanks to a mix of unclear macroeconomic influencers, the corporation\u2019s growth opportunities and its uncertain ability to wield the ax on expenses. 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