{"id":55130,"date":"2017-03-09T17:03:48","date_gmt":"2017-03-09T23:03:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/?p=55130"},"modified":"2017-03-09T18:20:52","modified_gmt":"2017-03-10T00:20:52","slug":"many-hopes-and-challenges-2017-a-real-test-for-united","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/many-hopes-and-challenges-2017-a-real-test-for-united\/","title":{"rendered":"United Continental is ready to take off in 2017, but will it fly?"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Shen Lu<\/strong><\/p>\n

Wall Street had hoped that United Continental Holdings Inc. would stage a turnaround in 2017 after years of merger-related problems. But higher oil prices and rising labor costs are clouding the outlook.<\/p>\n

Chicago\u2019s hometown carrier has had poor operational and profit performance since its merger with Continental Airlines in 2010. United, once the world\u2019s largest carrier, has since become what analysts call a \u201cproblem child\u201d in the U.S. airline industry.<\/p>\n

2017, however, is a pivotal year for the company\u2019s new management team, led by CEO Oscar Munoz, to transform the company, analysts said.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you see those further improvements, then I think you are going to see potentially the stock going higher in 2017,\u201d said Chris Higgins, an analyst with Chicago-based Morningstar Inc. \u201cBut i think it\u2019s kind of a show-me story now for investors.\u201d<\/p>\n

Shares of United have risen 26.3 percent over the past year to close at $72.54\u00a0on Thursday. That compares with a gain of 18.76 percent for the Standard & Poor\u2019s 500 Index in the same period.<\/p>\n

Out of 18 analysts covering United, 11 rate the stock a \u201cbuy\u201d and seven call it a \u201chold,\u201d according to Bloomberg. Their average 12-month target price for United\u2019s shares is $85.44,\u00a018 percent higher than Thursday’s closing price.<\/p>\n

The company\u2019s 12-month trailing price-to-earnings ratio stands at just 8.39, compared with a median ratio of 8.97 of U.S.-based airlines and 21.77 for the S&P 500, according to Bloomberg.<\/p>\n

The sector, including United, attracted a $10-billion investment from famed value investor Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., over the past five months.<\/p>\n

Light at the end of the tunnel<\/h2>\n

The No.3 U.S. airline by passenger traffic has had lagging profit compared to other legacy carriers. The company said in a January conference call with analysts that its focus in 2017 is to improve margins and that the airline is on track to boost profit by $4.8 billion by 2020.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Wall Street\u2019s concerns over the troubled carrier have eased in recent months as management, under Munoz, took steps to improve performance, including fortifying flights and hubs, updating the airline’s yield management system and improving labor productivity.<\/p>\n

Munoz took over United in fall 2015 after then-CEO Jeff Smisek and two others resigned amid allegations the company reinstated a money-losing route that benefited the chairman of the Port of Authority of New York and New Jersey in return for preferential treatment.<\/p>\n

Munoz brought in Andrew Levy as the chief financial officer and Scott Kirby, former president of American Airlines Inc., as United\u2019s president — a team that impressed Wall Street. Just 37 days into his new position, Munoz, 57, suffered a heart attack, and underwent a heart transplant three months later. He returned to his post last March.<\/p>\n

As part of its route network revitalization plan, United will add 47 new daily domestic round trips as early as June. The flights will add nearly 8,700 additional seats per day and about 90,000 new flight miles, the company said<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Expanding capacity domestically is a logical move given competitive pressures in international markets from emerging Chinese and Middle Eastern airlines and ultra-low-cost European carriers, Higgins said.<\/p>\n

Joe Schwieterman, a professor and transportation expert at DePaul University, said domestic capacity expansion is a positive sign for United as it has the best hub system among the major airlines.<\/p>\n

\u201cDomestically it\u2019s looking pretty good right now, and that\u2019s probably where most profits are going to be,\u201d Schwieterman said.<\/p>\n

United operates more than 4,500 flights a day to 339 airports across five continents, according to the company.<\/p>\n

Analysts\u2019 takes<\/h2>\n

Helane Becker, an analyst at Cowen & Co., calls United a \u201csleeping giant\u201d that has significant earnings potential despite operational missteps over the past few years. However, the Pacific region is key to the company’s turnaround, she wrote in a Jan. 19 note.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe concern we have is related to [foreign exchange], as the USD continues to strengthen against major currencies in Asia,\u201d Becker said. \u201cIf we see a turnaround in the Pacific, there is potential upside to earnings estimates at United.\u201d<\/p>\n

Higgins, who has a neutral rating on the stock, is taking a wait-and-see approach.<\/p>\n

\u201cRight now, do I see a compelling reason to get into the stock? No,\u201d he said. \u201cI want to see some more traction on what management is doing.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still, he believes that United will start to close some of the margin gap with industry leader Delta Air Lines Inc. in 2017.<\/p>\n

Morgan Stanley analyst Rajeev Lalwani raised his target price on United\u2019s shares from $78 to $81 in January due to the company\u2019s improving pricing trends.<\/p>\n

Lalwani wrote in a Jan.19 research note that while United is moving in the right direction, the company\u2019s low margins will continue through 2017.<\/p>\n

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC\u2019s Jamie Baker recommends that investors buy United shares as he believes in the executive team\u2019s ability to turn the company around.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe path ahead is very difficult, but this management team gives United its best chance of success,\u201d Baker wrote in a Feb.1 research note.<\/p>\n

However, risks remain as the carrier is highly leveraged to fluctuations in air travel demand, Baker said.<\/p>\n

\u201cShould the US and\/or global economy strengthen less than currently expected, our earnings and financial projections could be negatively affected,\u201d he wrote. \u201cIf jet fuel prices trend higher in a sustained fashion, our UAL estimates could be reduced.\u201d<\/p>\n

China, where United has 45 daily flights to and from the U.S., is another risk, he wrote. If the world\u2019s second largest economy continues to see sluggish economic growth, United could face greater pressure on its profitability, Baker noted.<\/p>\n

Higgins sees little reason to worry about China. Demand for air travel is strong in China despite a slowing economy, and it continues to transition to a consumer-driven economy from an investment-driven one.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs long as that consumer-driven part of [the economy] grows, you are going to see air travel stand up fairly well,\u201d Higgins said.<\/p>\n

lingering labor woes<\/h2>\n

After the merger with Continental, United suffered from poor on-time performance, partly due to failed integration of the two carriers\u2019 labor groups, experts said.<\/p>\n

The carrier ranked No.5 among U.S.-based airlines in 2016 in on-time performance with a 81.7 percent on-time arrival rate<\/a>, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation.<\/p>\n

United\u2019s management has pledged to improve its historically acrimonious relationship with employee groups, something that has dogged the company for decades.<\/p>\n

In a February interview<\/a> with Business Insider, Munoz said he learned by listening to employees that their grudge against the company was personal.<\/p>\n

\u201cI’m not moving anywhere with this company until we fix these personal issues,\u201d Munoz said.<\/p>\n

Last year, United took a big step forward in labor relations. Flight attendants and mechanics union groups ratified new contracts with the carrier for the first time since combining the labor forces.
\nThe airline also secured contract extensions with pilots, dispatchers and other employee groups, hence the higher labor costs for this year.<\/p>\n

With labor peace, Schwieterman expects operations, including on-time performance, to improve.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe integration problem seems to be behind them,\u201d Schwieterman said.<\/p>\n

New programs<\/h2>\n

To compete against ultra-low-cost carriers, such as Spirit, Frontier and Allegiant, United rolled out a basic economy fare class last month.<\/p>\n

Some analysts see the program as a revenue driver for the legacy airline.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s basically a stealth fare hike,\u201d Higgins said. \u201cIt\u2019s pushing people from basic economy into economy because they\u2019ll say that, \u2018Well, I don\u2019t want to buy a basic economy ticket because I want certain things like a seat and other amenities.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

Delta has been successful with this tactic, and so United and American are following suit , Higgins said.<\/p>\n

But Schwieterman said he thinks basic economy is a tough challenge.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s pretty clear that those ultra discounters will continue to grow, and I am not sure we know that the basic economy idea is going to work, given quite some confusion in the minds of buyers.\u201d<\/p>\n

United said it expects 2017 capacity to increase 1 percent to 2 percent over 2016. But, said Higgins, ultra-low-cost carriers expect to expand capacity by double-digit percentages this year.<\/p>\n

The carrier is also introduced a new Polaris business class seat<\/a>, which debuted\u00a0last month on its Boeing 777-300ER fleet.<\/p>\n

Analysts are watching closely to see whether these moves are successful.<\/p>\n

\u201cBy the end of the year, I think that if you are not seeing a turnaround United, then I think the market might sell out on them,\u201d Higgins said.<\/p>\n

Photo at top: A United Airlines plane is parked at Chicago O’Hare International Airport. (Shen Lu\/MEDILL)<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Shen Lu Wall Street had hoped that United Continental Holdings Inc. would stage a turnaround in 2017 after years of merger-related problems. But higher oil prices and rising labor costs are clouding the outlook. Chicago\u2019s hometown carrier has had poor operational and profit performance since its merger with Continental Airlines in 2010. United, once […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":379,"featured_media":55139,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27,3516],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-55130","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","category-winter-2017"],"yoast_head":"\nUnited Continental is ready to take off in 2017, but will it fly? - Medill Reports Chicago<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/many-hopes-and-challenges-2017-a-real-test-for-united\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"United Continental is ready to take off in 2017, but will it fly? - Medill Reports Chicago\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Shen Lu Wall Street had hoped that United Continental Holdings Inc. would stage a turnaround in 2017 after years of merger-related problems. 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But higher oil prices and rising labor costs are clouding the outlook. Chicago\u2019s hometown carrier has had poor operational and profit performance since its merger with Continental Airlines in 2010. 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