{"id":6921,"date":"2015-02-19T14:26:01","date_gmt":"2015-02-19T20:26:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/?p=6921"},"modified":"2015-02-19T15:36:57","modified_gmt":"2015-02-19T21:36:57","slug":"sorry-exporters-a-strong-dollar-is-golden-in-u-s","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/sorry-exporters-a-strong-dollar-is-golden-in-u-s\/","title":{"rendered":"Sorry exporters, a strong dollar is golden in U.S."},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By Lei Xuan<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe world is in a currency war,\u201d says<a href=\"http:\/\/www.agaryshilling.com\/a-gary-shilling\/\" target=\"_blank\"> A. Gary Shilling<\/a>, president of the New Jersey-based consultants A. Gary Shilling &amp; Co.<\/p>\n<p>His reasoning is simple and global: \u201cMany central banks are chopping interest rates to push their currencies down. They all hope to spur exports to offset internal weakness.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>A moderate depreciation of currency is, indeed, especially good for countries who rely heavily on exports. A weaker currency makes export goods cheaper in foreign markets.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>While overseas firms benefit from currency depreciations, some U.S. companies have been hurt by\u00a0appreciation of the dollar. U.S. firms from McDonald\u2019s Corp. to Apple Inc. all reported shrinking or lower-than-expected overseas revenues when they converted foreign currencies into the dollar.<\/p>\n<p>But Americans still benefit at places like the gas pump.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe dollar is the global reserve currency,\u201d says <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mesirowfinancial.com\/economics\/laurenti\/\" target=\"_blank\">Adolfo Laurenti<\/a>, managing director and chief international economist of Mesirow Financial. \u201cImport goods, such as commodities and energy, are priced in dollars. They get cheaper as the dollar strengthens, which is good for U.S. households.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Economists believe some of the money saved from falling energy prices will be spent to bolster other sectors in the economy.<\/p>\n<h1>A New Currency War?<\/h1>\n<figure id=\"attachment_6942\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-6942\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"http:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/02\/Currency.jpg\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-6942 size-medium\" src=\"http:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/02\/Currency-300x167.jpg\" alt=\"Most of the global major currencies kept on depreciating against the U.S. dollar in 2015. (Lei Xuan\/Medill)\" width=\"300\" height=\"167\" srcset=\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/medill.wordpress.offload\/WP%20Media%20Folder%20-%20medill-reports-chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/02\/Currency-300x167.jpg 300w, https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/medill.wordpress.offload\/WP%20Media%20Folder%20-%20medill-reports-chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/02\/Currency-1024x569.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/medill.wordpress.offload\/WP%20Media%20Folder%20-%20medill-reports-chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/02\/Currency-672x372.jpg 672w, https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/medill.wordpress.offload\/WP%20Media%20Folder%20-%20medill-reports-chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/02\/Currency-1038x576.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/medill.wordpress.offload\/WP%20Media%20Folder%20-%20medill-reports-chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/02\/Currency.jpg 1134w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-6942\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Most of the global major currencies kept on depreciating against the U.S. dollar in 2015. (Lei Xuan\/Medill)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>In recent months, the European Central Bank launched <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/pr\/date\/2015\/html\/pr150122_1.en.html\" target=\"_blank\">quantitative easing<\/a>, a monetary policy that purchases financial assets from commercial banks to increase the amount of money in financial markets. The QE program has made the euro further depreciate about 2 percent against the U.S. dollar in one month.<\/p>\n<p>Australia, India, Canada and Denmark cut interest rates in tandem to boost their economies. Those countries\u2019 currencies all devalued against the U.S. dollar as well.<\/p>\n<p>When so many countries try to\u00a0devalue their\u00a0currency,\u00a0\u201cthe competitive devaluations offset each other. Nevertheless, all are devalued against the U.S. dollar, which, as the world&#8217;s currency, can&#8217;t devalue,\u201d Shilling says.<\/p>\n<p><iframe src=\"https:\/\/charts.datawrapper.de\/zRevH\/\" frameborder=\"0\" allowtransparency=\"true\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" webkitallowfullscreen=\"webkitallowfullscreen\" mozallowfullscreen=\"mozallowfullscreen\" oallowfullscreen=\"oallowfullscreen\" msallowfullscreen=\"msallowfullscreen\" width=\"600\" height=\"400\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<div id=\"featurecaption\">Since 2014, the U.S. dollar has gained more than 17 percent against a basket of foreign currencies including the euro, pound sterling, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, Swiss Franc and Swedish krona.(Wall Street Journal, Lei Xuan\/Medill)<\/div>\n<p>\u201cCurrency war\u201d has become a buzzword since former Brazilian Finance Minister <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/business-11424864\" target=\"_blank\">Guido Mantega<\/a> used the term in 2010. He adopted it to describe a condition when countries compete with each other to hold down their currencies and gain an advantage in global market.<\/p>\n<p>However, this time, some experts believe central banks are motivated by a different agenda.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI do not use the term \u2018currency war\u2019 because it signals an intent to do harm, and that is not the intent,\u201d says <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/education\/browse-materials\/bios\/commentary\/bluford-putnam.html\" target=\"_blank\">Bluford Putman<\/a>, managing director and chief economist of CME Group. \u201cQuite a few countries are seeing declining inflation and in some cases, the potential of deflation. Cutting rates is quite appropriate for domestic purposes.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Relatively strong economies will attract global capital flows, and the U.S. dollar\u2019s strength reflects the relative health of the U.S. economy, experts say.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRelatively weak economies and accommodative monetary policy may lead to depreciating currencies, but it is not currency war,\u201d Putman says.<\/p>\n<h1>What does a strong dollar mean?<\/h1>\n<p>The U.S. economy is recovering on several fronts. <a href=\"http:\/\/bea.gov\/newsreleases\/national\/gdp\/gdpnewsrelease.htm\" target=\"_blank\">The U.S. GDP<\/a> in 2014 recorded a 2.4 percent growth, the strongest year since 2010. <a href=\"http:\/\/data.bls.gov\/timeseries\/LNS14000000\" target=\"_blank\">The unemployment rate<\/a> was 5.7 percent in January, just slightly above the 5.2-to-5.5 percent level, which the Federal Reserve views as normal.<\/p>\n<p>The U.S. economy is in\u00a0much better shape than the rest of the world. Europe is still trying to pull out of stagnation. Japan temporarily rolled back into recession in the second and third quarter of 2014. Investors show confidence in the U.S. economy and thus turn U.S. dollar to be a safe-haven currency.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn general, having a sound currency is a very good idea,\u201d says Dr. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thechicagocouncil.org\/expert\/phil-levy\" target=\"_blank\">Phil Levy<\/a>, senior fellow on the global economy for the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. \u201cIt is better than people worrying about losing its value.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>However, the appreciation of the dollar also means \u201cthe U.S. exporters are going to face more challenges,\u201d according to Levy.<\/p>\n<p>Levy points out that the 2014 fourth quarter of U.S. GDP growth missed forecasts at 2.6 percent, compared to second quarter 4.6 percent and third quarter 5.0 percent growth rates.<\/p>\n<p>Weak exports partly drove the\u00a0slowdown. Exports could fall even harder since the dollar is still advancing against most of the foreign currencies. Nevertheless, it should also be noted, as a sign of economic recovery, consumer spending, which accounts for two-third of the U.S. GDP, increased at a fast pace at 4.3 percent, the best performance since the first quarter of 2006.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think the U.S. economy is doing relatively well,\u201d Levy says. \u201cThe drag comes from the slow growth from the rest of the world.\u201d<\/p>\n<h1>U.S. economy 2015<\/h1>\n<p>Could the U.S. economy sustain solid growth in 2015 without being dragged down by the relatively weak global economy? All eyes are set on Federal Reserve\u2019s monetary policy now.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_6937\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-6937\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><a href=\"http:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/02\/Dollar-Original-Lei-Xuan.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-6937\" src=\"http:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/02\/Dollar-Original-Lei-Xuan-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"The appreciation of the U.S. dollar attracts international capital flows. (Lei Xuan\/Medill)\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/02\/Dollar-Original-Lei-Xuan-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/02\/Dollar-Original-Lei-Xuan.jpg 800w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-6937\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The appreciation of the U.S. dollar attracts international capital flows. (Lei Xuan\/Medill)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>While other central banks are cutting interest rates, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates sometime between June and December. An interest rate hike will show the Federal Reserve\u2019s confidence on the U.S. economy and decrease the amount of money in the financial market. It will drive the dollar even higher.<\/p>\n<p>In January, the Federal Reserve told the public it would be \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/press\/monetary\/20150128a.htm\">patient<\/a>\u201d in deciding when to raise\u00a0interest rates. The Fed has an\u00a0&#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/press\/monetary\/20150218a.htm\">increased concern about the global economic outlook,<\/a>&#8221; as well as &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/press\/monetary\/20150218a.htm\">the announced and anticipated\u00a0foreign central bank policies.<\/a>&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere are two ways we can think it (international development) may affect the Fed\u2019s action,\u201d says Levy. \u201cOne way, you can say [other countries] are driving down their currencies. We need to respond. I think that\u2019s very unlikely. The other one is, they are loosening their monetary policy. Therefore, their economy revives,\u00a0which means there will be a greater demand in the world, so that we can go ahead our plans. I think that\u2019s more likely.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Experts are generally optimistic about the U.S. economy. Whether or not they see a currency war, they all agree that the depreciation of other currencies won\u2019t stop the U.S. economic recovery because the main driving force of the U.S. economy comes from domestic factors.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe strong dollar doesn&#8217;t affect the American economy much,\u201d says Shilling, \u201cU.S. exports are only 13.5 percent of the GDP, the lowest of all G7 and BRIC countries except Brazil.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Unless there is a geo-political crisis in Ukraine or Middle East, or a major financial crisis in Europe or Asia, Laurenti says he\u00a0doesn\u2019t think the global market will pose a big threat to the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhile the U.S. economy is more integrated with the global economy than it used to be, most of the strength we anticipate in 2015 is based on domestic factors, so U.S. growth should not be too dependent on developments abroad,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<div id=\"featurecaption\">Photo at top: A strong dollar hurts U.S. exports, but is generally good for the U.S. economy. (Lei Xuan\/Medill)<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Lei Xuan \u201cThe world is in a currency war,\u201d says A. Gary Shilling, president of the New Jersey-based consultants A. Gary Shilling &amp; Co. His reasoning is simple and global: \u201cMany central banks are chopping interest rates to push their currencies down. They all hope to spur exports to offset internal weakness.\u201d A moderate [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":113,"featured_media":6933,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27,28,30,243],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6921","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","category-general-interest","category-public-affairs","category-winter-2015"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Sorry exporters, a strong dollar is golden in U.S. - Medill Reports Chicago<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/sorry-exporters-a-strong-dollar-is-golden-in-u-s\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Sorry exporters, a strong dollar is golden in U.S. - Medill Reports Chicago\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Lei Xuan \u201cThe world is in a currency war,\u201d says A. Gary Shilling, president of the New Jersey-based consultants A. Gary Shilling &amp; Co. His reasoning is simple and global: \u201cMany central banks are chopping interest rates to push their currencies down. 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