{"id":7058,"date":"2015-02-18T17:09:35","date_gmt":"2015-02-18T23:09:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/?p=7058"},"modified":"2015-02-18T17:09:35","modified_gmt":"2015-02-18T23:09:35","slug":"u-s-producer-price-index-dropped-january-due-to-cheap-oil-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/u-s-producer-price-index-dropped-january-due-to-cheap-oil-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. Producer Price Index Dropped January due to Cheap Oil Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>by Jin Wu<\/p>\n<p>U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures changes in prices received by domestic producers, posted a decline in January mainly due to plunging energy costs and a strengthening of the U.S. dollar, according to the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/a> Wednesday.<\/p>\n<p>The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand decreased a seasonally adjusted 0.8 percent in January from December. It\u2019s the biggest drop since the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/ppi\/fdidtransition.htm\" target=\"_blank\">new PPI calculation system<\/a> was begun experimentally in November 2009.<!--more--><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_7061\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-7061\" style=\"width: 702px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/02\/PPI_graphs.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-7061\" src=\"http:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/02\/PPI_graphs.png\" alt=\"The price index for total final demand decreased 0.8 percent, the biggest drop since November 2009. The food price index is more heavily impacted than service price index because the former depended on oil prices more heavily. (The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Jin Wu\/Medill)\" width=\"702\" height=\"510\" srcset=\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/02\/PPI_graphs.png 702w, https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/02\/PPI_graphs-300x218.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 702px) 100vw, 702px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-7061\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The price index for total final demand decreased 0.8 percent, the biggest drop since November 2009. The food price index is more heavily impacted than service price index because the former depended on oil prices more heavily. (The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Jin Wu\/Medill)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div id=\"related\" style=\"margin-left: 20px;\">\n<h4 style=\"margin-top: 8px;\">Transitions of PPI calculation system<\/h4>\n<p>The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics changed its PPI calculation system from the stage-of-processing (SOP) system to the final demand-intermediate demand (FD-ID) aggregation system in February 2014, to broaden the coverage and improve the representativeness of PPI.<\/p>\n<p>According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, compared to the old SOP system, the new FD-ID system more than doubled PPI coverage of the U.S. economy to over 75 percent of in-scope domestic production.<\/p>\n<p>Although the FD-ID system didn\u2019t start until February 2014, the historical data can be tracked back to as early as November 2009 because it was put into experiments from that time.<\/p>\n<p>The new PPI data comprises two items: index for final demand and index for intermediate demand. The biggest difference between the SOP finished goods and the new final demand is the addition of services, constructions, exports and government purchases.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>The index for final demand goods moved down 2.1 percent, the seventh consecutive decrease, mainly due to the 10.3 percent drop in final demand energy prices in which the gasoline price index played the most important part: a 24.0 percent decrease.<\/p>\n<p>Excluding foods, energy, and trade services, the index for final demand still moved down 0.3 percent after edging up 0.1 percent in December.<\/p>\n<p>Within intermediate demand, the index for processed goods prices declined 2.8 percent from December, the largest decline since December 2008; and the price index for unprocessed goods dropped 9.4 percent, the largest drop since November 2008.<\/p>\n<p>Guido Lorenzoni, professor of economics at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.northwestern.edu\" target=\"_blank\">Northwestern University<\/a> and research associate of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nber.org\" target=\"_blank\">the National Bureau of Economic Research<\/a>, said it is not surprising that price indexes of goods experienced a much bigger impact than the index of services because the former \u201crelied more on energy input.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>A 19.2 percent decline in diesel fuel prices was a major factor in the decrease in the index for processed goods for intermediate demand, and a 30.6 percent drop in crude petroleum enormously affected the index for unprocessed goods.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_7060\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-7060\" style=\"width: 708px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/02\/PPI_graphs-2.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-7060\" src=\"http:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/02\/PPI_graphs-2.png\" alt=\"The decline in energy cost, especially in unprocessed energy materials, is the main reason behind the falling Producer Price Index in January. (The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Jin Wu\/Medill)\" width=\"708\" height=\"542\" srcset=\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/medill.wordpress.offload\/WP%20Media%20Folder%20-%20medill-reports-chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/02\/PPI_graphs-2.png 708w, https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/medill.wordpress.offload\/WP%20Media%20Folder%20-%20medill-reports-chicago\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2015\/02\/PPI_graphs-2-300x230.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 708px) 100vw, 708px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-7060\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The decline in energy cost, especially in unprocessed energy materials, is the main reason behind the falling Producer Price Index in January. (The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Jin Wu\/Medill)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>For the 12 months ended in January, the index for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand declined 18.4 percent, the largest 12-month drop since September 2009.<\/p>\n<p>Lorenzoni said people shouldn\u2019t worry about deflation at this moment. \u201cThis is consistent with what we have seen in the last year: a very low inflation essentially due to declining oil prices,\u201d he said. \u201cWe will worry about deflation if there are a demand decline and growing unemployment. In this case, the reason of falling prices is at the supply side, especially thanks to the falling oil prices.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve<\/a> said after its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) <a href=\"http:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/press\/monetary\/20150128a.htm\" target=\"_blank\">meeting<\/a> in January that \u201cinflation is anticipated to decline further in the near term,\u201d but the committee expects it to rise gradually toward 2 percent in the coming years once \u201cthe transitory effects of lower energy prices\u201d dissipate.<\/p>\n<p>Since December 2008 the Fed has kept its short-term interest rate near zero. The Fed reiterated in January that \u201cit can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy.\u201d Lorenzoni said the Fed may be \u201ceven more patient than it claimed\u201d and \u201cthe short-term interest may be updated later than June.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><em>(Note:\u00a0The FD-ID indexes typically have a reference base of November, \u00a02009)<\/em><\/p>\n<div id=\"featurecaption\">Photo at top: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics replaced the Wholesale Price Index with the Producer Price Index (PPI) in 1978. (Nomadic Lass\/<a href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/\" target=\"_blank\">Creative Commons<\/a>)<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>by Jin Wu U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures changes in prices received by domestic producers, posted a decline in January mainly due to plunging energy costs and a strengthening of the U.S. dollar, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Wednesday. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand decreased a seasonally [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":35,"featured_media":7080,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27,243],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7058","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","category-winter-2015"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>U.S. Producer Price Index Dropped January due to Cheap Oil Prices - Medill Reports Chicago<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/u-s-producer-price-index-dropped-january-due-to-cheap-oil-prices\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"U.S. Producer Price Index Dropped January due to Cheap Oil Prices - Medill Reports Chicago\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"by Jin Wu U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures changes in prices received by domestic producers, posted a decline in January mainly due to plunging energy costs and a strengthening of the U.S. dollar, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Wednesday. 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