{"id":7182,"date":"2015-02-19T10:03:49","date_gmt":"2015-02-19T16:03:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/?p=7182"},"modified":"2015-02-19T10:03:49","modified_gmt":"2015-02-19T16:03:49","slug":"fomc-minutes-many-favor-delaying-interest-rate-hike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/fomc-minutes-many-favor-delaying-interest-rate-hike\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed minutes: \u2018many\u2019 favor delaying interest rate hike"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Lucy Ren<\/p>\n

The majority of the participants at the January\u00a0Federal Open Market Committee <\/a>meeting\u00a0<\/a>leaned towards delaying the interest rate hike, according to the FOMC\u2019s January meeting minutes<\/a> released on Wednesday.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

The Fed has kept interest rate near zero for six years in order to stimulate the economy.<\/p>\n

\"Fed<\/a>
Fed funds is the U.S. overnight inter-bank lending rate. The funds target rate has been kept at zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008. (Bloomberg, Lucy Ren\/Medill)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cMany participants appeal to keeping the lower bound for a longer time,\u201d BBVA Compass economist Shushanik Papanyan said.<\/p>\n

According to the minutes, \u201cseveral participants\u201d noted that if the Fed were to raise the short-term interest rate too late, the stance of monetary policy would become \u201caccommodative,\u201d leading to \u201cexcessively high inflation.\u201d<\/p>\n

On the other hand, \u201cmany participants\u201d observed \u201ca premature increase in rates might damp the apparent solid recovery in real activity and labor market conditions.\u201d<\/p>\n

BBVA Compass estimates that the interest rate hike will take place in the third quarter of 2015. Papanyan said the minutes provided a \u201creassuring support\u201d for keeping the estimation.<\/p>\n

The committee also repeated the forward guidance<\/a> of \u201ccan be patient\u201d regarding when to start raising interest rates. The guidance was introduced in December by the FOMC.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey are afraid of the possibility of a tightening financial condition once they drop the guidance,\u201d Papanyan said. \u201cAnd that\u2019s something we should pay attention to at their next meeting.\u201d<\/p>\n

Participants at the meeting also saw \u201cbroad-based\u201d improvement in labor market conditions over the intermeeting period, including \u201cstrong gains in payroll employment and a further reduction in the unemployment rate.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThey are still debating about how much slack remains in the labor market,\u201d said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates. \u201cFor example, the stagnation of wages is an indicator of slack.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

Related stories<\/h1>\n

Illinois saw the largest unemployment rate decline in U.S.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

The minutes showed that \u201ca few observed that the combination of recent labor market improvements and continued softness in inflation had led them to lower their estimates of the longer-run normal rate of unemployment,\u201d while \u201ca few others\u201d saw \u201conly a limited degree of remaining labor underutilization or anticipated that underutilization would be eliminated relatively soon.\u201d<\/p>\n

On the global economic outlook, \u201cmany\u201d participants voiced concern that \u201ca deterioration in the foreign economic situation could pose downside risks to the outlook for U.S. economic growth,\u201d the minutes showed. At the same time, \u201cseveral\u201d others saw those risks as \u201chaving diminished over the intermeeting period,\u201d with the help of \u201clower oil prices and actions of foreign central banks\u201d supportive of growth abroad.<\/p>\n

\"Bloomberg\u2019s<\/a>
Bloomberg\u2019s U.S. Dollar Index indicates the general international value of the U.S. dollar. It is compiled by averaging the exchange rates between the U.S. dollar and other major world currencies. (Bloomberg, Lucy Ren\/Medill)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
<\/div>\n

However, \u201cthe increase in the foreign exchange value of the dollar was expected to be a persistent source of restraint on U.S. net exports,\u201d the minutes said, \u201cand a few participants pointed to the risk that the dollar could appreciate further.\u201d China was noted as a factor \u201crestraining economic expansion in a number of countries.\u201d<\/p>\n

Other continuing risks to the international economic outlook include \u201cglobal disinflationary pressure, tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, and financial uncertainty in Greece.\u201d<\/p>\n

Overall, the minutes said that the risks to the outlook for the U.S. economic activity and the labor market were seen as \u201cnearly balanced.\u201d<\/p>\n

Inflation moved \u201cfurther below the Committee\u2019s longer-run objective.\u201d Participants at the meeting generally anticipated that inflation would rise gradually toward \u201cthe Committee\u2019s 2 percent objective,\u201d as the labor market improved further and \u201cthe transitory effects of lower energy prices and other factors dissipated,\u201d the minutes said.<\/p>\n

\"The<\/a>
The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of more than 60 economists on when they think the Fed will raise the federal funds rate. (WSJ Economic Forecasting Survey)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

According to a survey<\/a> conducted by the Wall Street Journal, 50.75 percent of the economists being surveyed believe the Fed will make its first increase in the federal funds rate in the second quarter of 2015, down from 50.8 percent before the release of the FOMC minutes.<\/p>\n

Photo at Top: The FOMC meeting is held eight times a year in the boardroom of the Federal Reserve. (ctj71081\/Flickr)<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Lucy Ren The majority of the participants at the January\u00a0Federal Open Market Committee meeting\u00a0leaned towards delaying the interest rate hike, according to the FOMC\u2019s January meeting minutes released on Wednesday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":7282,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27,30,243],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7182","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","category-public-affairs","category-winter-2015"],"yoast_head":"\nFed minutes: \u2018many\u2019 favor delaying interest rate hike - Medill Reports Chicago<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/fomc-minutes-many-favor-delaying-interest-rate-hike\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fed minutes: \u2018many\u2019 favor delaying interest rate hike - 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