{"id":73769,"date":"2018-12-10T21:07:15","date_gmt":"2018-12-11T03:07:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/?p=73769"},"modified":"2018-12-11T12:45:33","modified_gmt":"2018-12-11T18:45:33","slug":"bulletin-of-the-atomic-scientists-brings-jerry-brown-into-the-fold-but-no-clock-change-yet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/bulletin-of-the-atomic-scientists-brings-jerry-brown-into-the-fold-but-no-clock-change-yet\/","title":{"rendered":"Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists brings Jerry Brown into the fold but no clock change yet"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Aaron Dorman <\/strong>
\n Medill Reports<\/em><\/p>\n

Amid the slate of world crises discussed at the annual meeting of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, one note of good news: Pakistan and India are unlikely to engage each other in nuclear warfare, according to a nuclear policy expert.<\/p>\n

But in other arenas, Bulletin editor-in-chief John Mecklin characterized our era as the most dangerous period since the early fifties\u2014the last time the Doomsday Clock was set at two minutes to midnight, where the hands rest ominously for now. The Bulletin will announce any change to those hands in January.<\/p>\n

\u201cLast year was a huge year for us,\u201d Mecklin said at the meeting in November. \u201cWith the help of Donald Trump, who said something horrifying about every 10 minutes all year long, we had a big traffic spike.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"\"
Editor-in-chief John Mecklin reviews the history of the the \u201cDoomsday Clock\u201d during the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists\u2019 Annual Meeting. ( Aaron Dorman\/MEDILL)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

During the annual donor event, the Bulletin hosted a slate of panels and discussions on the three major categories of threats to our society – nuclear risk, climate change and disruptive technologies such as cybersecurity. The Bulletin also introduced current California Governor Jerry Brown as the new executive chair.<\/p>\n

The unifying factor in the two political threats is the Trump Administration\u2019s hostility towards international cooperation, said several speakers. But the problem is not as simple as blaming everything on Trump.<\/p>\n

According to Ray Pierrehumbert, an Oxford University physics professor, no region is reducing carbon emissions at sufficient levels to avoid the catastrophic warming of climate change.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Physicist Ray Pierrehumbert leads a panel discussion on carbon budgets at the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists\u2019 Annual Meeting.\u00a0 (Aaron Dorman\/MEDILL)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cIf you look at the European Union, most believe the science is there,\u201d Pierrehumbert said. \u201cIt\u2019s the smallest denialist community and expressed political will is high, but has not been performing.\u201d<\/p>\n

Pierrehumbert explained that, because of the way carbon dioxide accumulates and persists in the atmosphere for thousands of years,\u00a0 the yearly emissions are not as important as the total amount of atmospheric carbon. Carbon levels in the atmosphere are above the levels needed to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celcius and prevent more extreme or unmanageable warming.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve already trashed the climate,\u201d Pierrehumbert said. \u201cBut there is a difference between knocking over one garbage can and having a dumpster dumped on your front law. Question is: how much worse does it get? How much more can we emit before we reach guidepost?\u201d<\/p>\n

The time to act on climate change is shrinking. The latest U.N. IPCC report offers another 12 years. As of 2016, annual emissions had stopped increasing, <\/em>but Pierrehumbert was skeptical that this trend would continue. The growth of the transportation sector, and the economic development of China and other parts of Asia, are major causes of concern. For Pierrehumbert, China and the US still \u201chold the main cards\u201d to reverse emissions trends.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe can\u2019t wave a magic wand and say if everybody believed the science, if every government was committed, everything would be fine,\u201d Pierrehumbert said.<\/p>\n

As of now, President Trump is firmly committed to U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. His Administration is strongly considering backing out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, an action termed dangerous by speaker Jon Wolfsthal, Director of the Nuclear Crisis Group and former special assistant to President Obama\u2019s National Security Council.<\/p>\n

The threat of nuclear weapons has been a constant issue since the U.S. dropped the first nuclear bomb on Hiroshima in 1945. The Trump Presidency has escalated it, between contentious dealings with North Korea over the past year, and a Nuclear Posture Report<\/a> that calls for development of new nuclear weapons, in a departure from prior Administrations.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe President is a disruptor,\u201d said Wolfsthal. \u201cHe believes that anything that can before him has flaws because he wasn\u2019t intimately involved in it, and this is his chance to affect change. It\u2019s bad enough its happening in issues that made America a prosperous and successful nation that it is, and helped the world prosper though not universally or equitably \u2026 in the nuclear space, this is really dangerous because \u2018we\u2019 are convinced of our own infallibility.\u201d<\/p>\n

Earlier this year, activist and former military analyst Daniel Ellsberg echoed similar sentiments in his book, \u201cThe Doomsday Machine,\u201d about the history of nuclear weapons policy in America and Russia.<\/p>\n

On the prospect of deadly fallout and nuclear winter, Ellsberg writes: \u201cWhether or not President Donald Trump has been briefed on this (almost surely not), both he and several of his cabinet officials, along with leaders of the Republican majority in Congress, are famous deniers of the scientific authority of such findings, based as they are on the most advanced climate models.\u201d<\/p>\n

Speaker Ramamurti Rajaraman, a Jawaharlal Nehru University physics professor and South Asian nuclear policy expert, said that despite the inherent dangers of nuclear weapons, the actual threat of a nuclear exchange anywhere in the world is low.<\/p>\n

Both India and Pakistan have over 120 nuclear missiles in their arsenal. Rajaraman said the magnitude of destruction from a single exchange was something neither country could contend with or justify.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is how many people you may kill,\u201d he said estimating at least half a million casualties in any nuclear strike on a major city in the region. \u201cAnd don\u2019t be embarrassed about reading that number. I think they [governments] also know. They appreciate that fact. There are some crazies who say, \u2018we can build five more hospitals.\u2019 So there are people who don\u2019t quite understand, but people in decision making situations do not believe that.\u201d<\/p>\n

Other panel discussions topics of the day included cyber security, bioweapons, and other issues related to \u201cdisruptive technologies.\u201d Recently the Bulletin has written reports on drone proliferation, spreading disinformation online, and oversight of biotechnologies.<\/p>\n

Despite their covering a plethora of the most dangerous and growing threats, to humanity, some Bulletin staff emphasized that they work to avoid a paralysis of fear among readers or the general public.<\/p>\n

\u201cAll is not lost,\u201d said Elisabeth Eaves, contributing editor for the Bulletin. \u201cThe future is not predetermined, so I think it\u2019s important to keep in mind that there are solutions \u2026 a lot of the problem is political gridlock but these are human created problems. We could pass the carbon tax, which a lot of smart people think would be the best way to reign in global warming.\u201d<\/p>\n

Thomas Gaulkin, the new multimedia editor who starts in January, was looking at how different media formats affect story reception. \u201cWhat is the single number that would scare people, for policy people could use to argue for their point?\u201d Gaulkin said. \u201cWe are all figuring that out. If we had the answer we would be in a better position.\u201d<\/p>\n

One way to engage people, is to put threats in the context of what people experience every day, Gaulkin said. \u201cFor the first time really, the environment and climate change was an issue in several races around the country because of wildfires, because of changing intensity of storms in hurricane season,\u201d he said. \u201cThat has really caused people to think of these things not as thousand year problems but as present day right now problems. Emphasizing that is probably the best thing anybody could do.\u201d<\/p>\n

After the Bulletin announces the Doomsday “time” in January, Brown is expected to take up his position as co-chair. The governor had recently help put together the Global Climate Action Summit, which was held in San Francisco this past September.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is a real dangerous time here,\u201d Brown said. \u201cI don\u2019t want you to feel too confident. But things are fragile \u2026 we know that human beings are capable of great folly as well as great invention. But this organization is dedicated to the memory of those who created the atomic bomb, catastrophic threats. That is our challenge: to wake people up and deal with the big threats.\u201d<\/p>\n

Brown described the current situation as analogous to two curves, with technology going up \u201cat a very steep rate,\u201d with the wisdom and self-restraint of leaders having flattened out.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have to wake up America, wake up the world, and do what is needed out of our science, our understanding, our insight, and our humanity,\u201d Brown said.<\/p>\n

Photo at top: Earth enveloped in airglow. (Oct. 17 photo from the International Space Station\/NASA)<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Aaron Dorman Medill Reports Amid the slate of world crises discussed at the annual meeting of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, one note of good news: Pakistan and India are unlikely to engage each other in nuclear warfare, according to a nuclear policy expert. But in other arenas, Bulletin editor-in-chief John Mecklin characterized […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":513,"featured_media":74027,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4447,29,2951],"tags":[4522,4527,506,4525,4528,4530,4532,4529,4523,4524,192,4531,4521,4526],"class_list":["post-73769","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fall-2018","category-health-and-science","category-politicsnational-security","tag-bulletin-of-the-atomic-scientists","tag-carbon-budget","tag-climate-change","tag-inf-treaty","tag-ipcc-report","tag-john-mecklin","tag-jon-wolfsthal","tag-national-climate-assessment","tag-nuclear-war","tag-nuclear-weapons","tag-promo","tag-ramamurti-rajaraman","tag-ray-pierrehumbert","tag-trump-north-korea"],"yoast_head":"\nBulletin of the Atomic Scientists brings Jerry Brown into the fold but no clock change yet - Medill Reports Chicago<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/news.medill.northwestern.edu\/chicago\/bulletin-of-the-atomic-scientists-brings-jerry-brown-into-the-fold-but-no-clock-change-yet\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists brings Jerry Brown into the fold but no clock change yet - Medill Reports Chicago\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Aaron Dorman Medill Reports Amid the slate of world crises discussed at the annual meeting of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, one note of good news: Pakistan and India are unlikely to engage each other in nuclear warfare, according to a nuclear policy expert. 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